The sudden sharp drop in implied volatility has triggered a tightly correlated decline
in the Options Complex Values.
Friday's Gap Up on the Job Report let a large amount of air out. Volumes on the ES,
SPY, SPX were abysmal once again.
We suggested that TECH was due for a pullback based upon the TLT, 10Yr Yields and
a number of additional causations stated.
The ROC for 10Yr yields caught many offsides, as they were NET Long TLT and ZB/ZN.
We are seeing signs of a repeat of the February 10th ROC breakaway from 1.13 to 1.71.
A "Rampage of Rates" on the long end of the Curve demonstrated it wasn't messing around
as profligate Fiscal Policies were met with Revolt.
Yields began the highest ROCs in their history - A clear warning sign of issues to come.
The Federal Reserve crossed the Rubicon with "Tools" - Yield Curve Control (YCC) to force
Yields lower beginning in April to test the arrangements.
The FED then doubled down in May and June to assure calm.
Since January there has been a large accumulation of Bonds across the Curve - a clear
warning sign. One which implies the return of Capital at an assured loss as Inflation is
running well above 17%.
"Panic" set in then and fear has only continued to compound.
We remain aggressive buyers of Volatility at levels.
Recall the $0.25 Volatility Options bought to open immediately before the February 2020
collapse.
Wall street ALWAYS gets it fill, we are waiting for this repeat on scale for a large correction.
Not a collapse, but a correction,
Currencies Wars are well under way. The DX remains well collared for now: 92/93.
Summer trading is most often "Dodgy" as participation remains Low and the AIQC can move
Price just about anywhere it chooses - wanting the high fill.
We are closely watching implied volatility for new fills.
We closed our range trades from 20 to 21.40 with solid gains and are now waiting to see
if the CASH or SPOT VIX will trade to 15.00 to 15.50, it is there we will pick the pieces back
up into Roll/Settlement.
in the Options Complex Values.
Friday's Gap Up on the Job Report let a large amount of air out. Volumes on the ES,
SPY, SPX were abysmal once again.
We suggested that TECH was due for a pullback based upon the TLT, 10Yr Yields and
a number of additional causations stated.
The ROC for 10Yr yields caught many offsides, as they were NET Long TLT and ZB/ZN.
We are seeing signs of a repeat of the February 10th ROC breakaway from 1.13 to 1.71.
A "Rampage of Rates" on the long end of the Curve demonstrated it wasn't messing around
as profligate Fiscal Policies were met with Revolt.
Yields began the highest ROCs in their history - A clear warning sign of issues to come.
The Federal Reserve crossed the Rubicon with "Tools" - Yield Curve Control (YCC) to force
Yields lower beginning in April to test the arrangements.
The FED then doubled down in May and June to assure calm.
Since January there has been a large accumulation of Bonds across the Curve - a clear
warning sign. One which implies the return of Capital at an assured loss as Inflation is
running well above 17%.
"Panic" set in then and fear has only continued to compound.
We remain aggressive buyers of Volatility at levels.
Recall the $0.25 Volatility Options bought to open immediately before the February 2020
collapse.
Wall street ALWAYS gets it fill, we are waiting for this repeat on scale for a large correction.
Not a collapse, but a correction,
Currencies Wars are well under way. The DX remains well collared for now: 92/93.
Summer trading is most often "Dodgy" as participation remains Low and the AIQC can move
Price just about anywhere it chooses - wanting the high fill.
We are closely watching implied volatility for new fills.
We closed our range trades from 20 to 21.40 with solid gains and are now waiting to see
if the CASH or SPOT VIX will trade to 15.00 to 15.50, it is there we will pick the pieces back
up into Roll/Settlement.