Look at the VIX chart here; we are again in the VIX 18th zone. In 2022 it was an excellent indicator to spot the bottom; it works during the bear markets only! So if we are still in a bear market, it should bounce from the 18 level hard and Indexes to fall. If we are entering a bull market, this setup can fail right here. I doubt it will fail until we see Q1 lows in markets. I might be wrong, and this setup can fail in a grand style.
The VIX bottoms have an excellent correlation with SPX highs (at the bottom orange colour); look for the yellow marked pointers for the 2022 patterns from VIX 18 level. I think we will repeat the same pattern again.
Thanks Tima. always great work. I’ve been with you on the call for spx 3400 roughly as a spring low….I still think we go there or lower before any new highs. However I’m starting to think that we may get a rally to the 4300 area forming a lower high to ath and possible double top. There actually is a set of economic fundamentals to support it. Strong jobs, lower inflation. There is a lot more to say but I’m on my phone. Anyway curious on your response to this idea
Alt-B
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@Alt-B all that said I still own sqqq since March and will hold until target or a clear bull pattern emerges
RealTima
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@Alt-B, I dont see 4300 anytime soon, maybe in the summertime only. There is a chance of the market to stretch to 4100, though, which would destroy bears and get everyone on the bull wagon IMO. Ideally we find a bottom at 3860-80SPX and make that one more trip up next week. The odds of the higher high are going down every day, so a lower high or double top is quite possible. SPX must hold 3850 level, otherwise, it will be a breakdown. Posted everything on our new site, you should join, its fun there
cefel
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'@all: TIMA is banned for one another week! He'll be back later.
s12sss
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are those arrows examples of when you called for VIX to boom and you were dead wrong? keep re drawing that trend line!!
again for people reading. VIX is reactive to external forces. you can not apply trends with confidence. When Putin drops the bomb, this thing will blow up, and no trend line will tell you Putin's/Fed/US gov plans.
this guy has been reading the tea leaves terribly for over a year, but when it does blow up (because eventually it will duh) this 🤡 will say he was right all along lol
RealTima
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@mattdevoss, Who are you troll? Some looser with no idea of how the markets work? You're definitely on the wrong side of the market like Avi and others calling for a bottom for the whole last year. I suggest you mind your own business and go and troll others, you're not welcomed here looser
s12sss
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@RealTima, You're right, i started the name calling with the clown emoji, you took it to the next level. My bad for instigating. I trolled because you NEVER just say, "hey, was wrong with my timing earlier, i think its going up now". But come on man, you have to admit, you've been calling for a breakout for over a year now and have been really really wrong.
also, I've never called for a bottom, i've never made any call on any stock because I am humble enough to admit I have no idea when it will happen and don't pretend to know.
Marlborough21
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Thanks Tina. Great chart. Completely unrelated... any thoughts on gold?
@Marlborough21, Welcome! I dont follow gold at this point, but it can very well stretch to the 2k zone. Also doubt it's going to see its prime time till after 2025-26. I think Oil has a great potential of 2x if it will get to $65-70