El índice de volatilidad en los mercados desarrollado por el SP500, indica calma cuando se acerca o baja de 20. Esto se debe a un suceso de cosas, como avances en las vacunas contra el COVID y los estímulos que Europa aprobó recientemente y esto sumado a los estímulos que USA ha venido desarrollando.
Furthermore, the indices appear to be in an ending diagonal pattern, if correct is a terminal move but still can go on a bit in a series of 4th and 5th waves. The key is deterioration of the advance-decline or breadth going negative. We're getting close to a major top, put/call ratio and bullish sentiment already at historical record levels associated with topping process.
SamSzulc
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My wife translated.The markets have gone up while the VIX has come down,the calm you refer to is already here for sometime despite vaccine or any other news. If news drove markets we'd all be rich.The VIX seasonal weakness ended last Friday but the weakness persists. It's possible the VIX is bottoming now and will go up even if the stock indices continue higher a bit.
danchallout
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Thanks for comment! You are right. I feel we still can push a little bit more. But finding a hard Top.
SamSzulc
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@LeverageTRD1, The VIX has come into the targeted 23 are (23.61) this morning and so far has bounced over 2 pts. to its' intraday high. Seasonal weakness ended 7/17 along with seasonal strength in Nasdaq. Both trends persisted into this morning (+ 1.25 market days) then reversed so far. It's possible for VIX and stock indices to go up together from this point forward, we'll see. Near term we could be in a triangle formation with S&P to test 3225 area in a wave B before the move up to new highs in Wave C. However, a 5 wave decline under this area could mean that an important top was already in place at today's highs. A break of the .618 Fibonacci retracement in NDX at 10763.11 would probably mean a top was already in place at the highs on 7/13.
danchallout
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@LeverageTRD1 ixic needs to slow down Because parabolic movements are not normal in any case.