This chart is very important it shows the very predictable decay pattern that occurs on ALL VIX spikes - every time.
Almost all VIX spikes will have a double top and then decay harmonic that looks like 1,2,3
Because COVID 2019 has already caused a spike to 85 and has already decayed to the 62 mark it is priced in the event very clearly and it will not be expected that the unemployment numbers will have a major effect.
This is VERY critical for those of you who have shorts and puts after March 25th the correction on that day will be your last chance to get out of your shorts.
While I don't contest that VIX is following the regular decay pattern, I question if the spike we had is the equivalent to the biggest spike from the GFC, and wonder if this is the 1/2/3 spikes that preceded the big one instead.
If that ends up being so, we're in for one hell of a spike. Given so far there is no slowdown with the infection spread/death rate in NYC, each day in that direction makes an even larger spike inevitable.
Unless widespread death is priced in of course...
UnknownUnicorn1694303
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@hihowubduin, I definitely think this may be a instance of latter double tops - the decay is not normal. I suspect a secondary strong first harmonic in the 73 range.
Z-Trading
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Amazing. Agreed on bullishness
tendiebets
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Are you saying it won't spike back up?
UnknownUnicorn1694303
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@tendiebets, It can - but on the long average it will decay just like all the other VIX spikes over time..
Bittrip69
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are you saying this market is bullish? hpw does that even make sense
If that ends up being so, we're in for one hell of a spike. Given so far there is no slowdown with the infection spread/death rate in NYC, each day in that direction makes an even larger spike inevitable.
Unless widespread death is priced in of course...