I think this is spike will happen just after Christmas/early January...could be sooner but I see the Santa rally holding things flat until this point when everyone bails out of the market...whoever is left that is HA
Hedge_Of_The_World
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@Fibonaccii11235, Definitely possible, we have a few key lending programs from the FED that expire by EOY. Corporate and municipal bonds specifically I believe. Depending on where we are in this insane global credit impulse wave, we could go a lot higher. There's no logic in markets right now, so it's all about the flows. Even bad news, or no news - is good news these days, so each pump higher feels more and more like a cruel joke on intelligent investors, savers, pensioners, or anyone with a low risk tolerance, really. I'm down a lot on my Vix long, and Nasdaq shorts, but I'm going to keep adding as we approach what appears to be a top on the monthly candle. Where else can I put the money? I can't even keep it in cash, because everything is seemingly doubling in price as we speak. This is an all out assault on cash. Lol.
FibonacciDiPisa
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@Hedge_Of_The_World, I agree with you on the potential for higher, though I think it will more likely be head fakes/bull traps as time goes on...right about now is the time bulls are feeling a little too comfortable warm in their beds AKA the perfect time for a bear rampage...but it is anyone's guess seeing how crazy things have been this year, good luck to you.
Hedge_Of_The_World
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@Fibonaccii11235,Well said! I'd love to see the bears show up with a relentless sell-off, sending Vix back to 40. Bulls are way too complacent right now, dreaming of the FED saving every bad investment they've made. Every long is seemingly a winner, until it's not. Let's see how the week shapes up heading into the shopping season. Good luck out there, my friend!
FibonacciDiPisa
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@Hedge_Of_The_World, only a matter of time when printing this much money, will be interesting when inflation really kicks in
Hedge_Of_The_World
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@Fibonaccii11235, For sure. When the 10Y yield breaks out, I think it'll put pressure on the FED to tighten lending conditions. Then again, their job is to keep buying bonds and surpressing rates, so it's a waiting game. Something will break soon enough. Maybe you're right, maybe it'll be inflation next year that changes everything.
WDERUVE
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What are you playing for end of this month on SPY? Anything yet? I’ve been like 24 hours late on all my plays for the past two weeks. Haven’t really lost much but haven’t hit like I should’ve. Playing weekly shorts mostly. Thinking about stretching out to early Jan but was curious as to what you were doing if anything.
Hedge_Of_The_World
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@WDERUVE, I'm short nasdaq, and long Vix. Taing a beating as we keep melting higher overnight. Asian (BOJ), and European (ECB) central banks, are buying everything under the sun. Soon they'll own 80% of their stock markets. I think we see an outside reversal candle in December, with a nasty crash in January. If we don't, I may sit on the sidelines until we see at least some price discovery and logic return to markets. I don't feel comfortable being long anything other than Vix right now. Lol. How about you? What do you think we're looking at heading into year end?
FibonacciDiPisa
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@WDERUVE, I have also been off on timing, usually thinking things will come sooner than that do and usually about 2-4 weeks ahead of schedule. I envision a relatively flat market to Christmas with lots of whipsaw:
3660-3680 range to end of month with a more dramatic push down starting in January, potentially to the 3400-3500s as crazy as that might sound. That being said, we could also run to 4000 because that is the insane world we live in :) , but I think the euphoria is starting to diminish finally. Can't rule anything out these days.
FibonacciDiPisa
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@Fibonaccii11235, sorry, forgot this was VIX as I was speaking more about ES, but same idea, VIX having heavy spike right at end of month after holiday and into January IMO