claydoctor
Short

VIX, SPY vortex, Deja Vu all over again?

INDEX:VIX   CBOE Volatility Index
114 0 1
Just an interesting chart, don't you think? Like, yeh, "everybody knows that". Conditions are different, but rather than suggest an alternate pattern after the pivot point or that because of the difference "this time", things would stay the same or just get better, the relationship factors are so stretched and the conditions that are different are so bubbleiscous, the opposite may become true, and exageration of previous bubble break response may be what historians record. We are at record lows of the VIX             , blue line, but have not reached the red line historic low point. We may not need to. Like everything else, what will be the catalyst, the pin prick that burst this bubble. And what is the bubble this time? Debt? No, not yet. Rates? No, not yet. Bond buying, stimulus, liquidity? No, not yet entirely. Unemployment, job market drop outs, corporation M&A, stock buy backs, layoffs? not yet, but getting close. The US govt buying stocks to prop the market? Not entirely and only when needed. It is currency devaluation. Forex traders know this. And currency manipulation has driven everything, and it is what this bull run is based on, with all the the aforementioned contributing factors just bit players and also rans. And since I have a day job, I have not had as much time as I would like to research this entirely, but looking for that catalyst, I mention as candidates, Argentina end of July default, China ghost town real estate bubble, ISIS             , GAZA, Ukraine, and... can someone please tell me why, with China so much the driver these past couple years, they HAVE NOT made a concerted effort to devalue their currency? Just trying to imagine why not, oh yes, they own more than half of the US debt. China may be at their tipping point to where they are so desperate to revive their economy, they devalue, which would reek havoc on the us stock markets (and world markets), implode the bond market, which causes more national credit defaults, even the US... causing a screeching halt to credit, liquidity, stimulus, and leaves us with, what? A mess that's for sure. And what do we think? Oh that could not possibly happen, someone will do something to prop it up yet once again. Think positive, the bull has legs to run. THE VIX             IS AT RECORD LOWS because of what we THINK (AKA hope) will happen, not what might happen. What if there are no more rabbits in the magician's hat? I am loading up with some VXX             , and not the stuff you rub on your throat and chest when you get a cold.
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