Idea for VIX: - VIX finally has touched pre-COVID levels. The debt and margin fueled recovery is complete. - Markets hitting ATH's every day (nearly a record for days in a row). - Yet every warning is flashing, market components are down, yet indices grind up on low volume. - Liquidity is flowing out, tapering has already begun, global credit impulse is negative, and market breadth is collapsing. - We are in the greatest asset bubble in history, and underlying conditions point to the greatest crash in history. - The crash has been telegraphed. In hindsight, it will be unanimously agreed upon that it was obvious. They will wonder how anyone could have been bullish here. - Such is the nature of the rally that a significant drop would create a bid-less market and mass liquidations. - Operators like to bid up a market to sell into (creating blow-off tops), and vice versa, to shake out retail and make sure the market will absorb their entire order.
It is all being set up for a great flush. Classic accumulation pattern. Bubbles make their greatest gains at their end.
Speculate the trigger by mid July.
"Be fearful when others are greedy" - Warren Buffett
GLHF - DPT
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Soon, soon:
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coronal hole detected, Solar wind Jul 12-14
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Aug 22, 2021 "Once in a blue moon"...
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Bonds typically lead VIX spikes by a few days - weeks. Now there is the signal in bonds:
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2M Call Volume 7/19. Historically, Call Volume on VIX > 1.5M leads to spikes a few days later
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This move in VVIX can be seen as the Wyckoff spring to begin the uptrend: