If one looks closely at the Longer Term Yearly Chart of the VIX, from 1996-2018,one can clearly see a TRIPLE BOTTOM of COMPLACENCY measured in YEARS..where GREED has overwhelmed FEAR, as measured by extreme low readings in the VIX, between 1993-2018 1.1995-1996 2.2006-2007 3.2017-2018
Triple Bottom time intervals are separated by almost 10 years apart.
I will leave you, to draw your own conclusions of the deeper meanings of human psychology, as it pertains today to our historically OVERVALUED stock market in the U.S in 2018.
THE_UNWIND
Comment
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8/15/18 2:00 PM NY
Intra-Day VIX on 8/15 Breakout Above Important Resistance at 16.00 !
A Close Above 16, this week would confirm a significant breakout in volatility, and be simple evidence of a potential new downturn in the stock market.
Why do you think this time it will be different? We've been below your line, had a breakout, only to return below the line.
The_Unwind
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@mpulley,
There are no guarantee's in the stock market mpulley.
But the Triple Bottom Multi-Year Base Pattern in the VIX near 9-10 has all the earmarks of a sustainable long term bottom.
I would rather be early, than late on a potential VIX rise or even worse Melt Up, at this point in the cycle.
So it comes down to risk/ reward. What you think is the greatest probability of protecting/or profiting
from a sharp stock market move to the downside.
I do however reserve the right to change my opinion should the S+P break out to new highs.
THE_UNWIND
Market_Manipulation
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@The_Unwind, so how are you trading this? Are you hold long-term calls?
The_Unwind
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@mpulley,
I do not trade options any more. My risk tolerance is not there.
Nor do I trade ETF"s based on VIX Volatility, for the same reason.
I do trade 3 X Bear ETFS on the major indices SPXS, SQQQ, and SDOW
and this is how I take advantage of in swings in volatility, or the VIX.
Market_Manipulation
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I'm bit confused... are you shorting VIX? Based on what you said and your chart, I would think you would be neutral/bullish. What's interesting about your chart, there have been a lot of head fakes. Where we come above the line, only to drop below it again. We did it recently. I'm going to continue to watch this chart.
The_Unwind
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@mpulley,
Keen observation mpulley. Thanks for picking it up.
I am Bearish, and mislabeled the tab.It should have read LONG.
I am looking for higher VIX volatility in the days and weeks ahead.