VIXY Volatility VIX Breakout or breakdown soon
It appears that volatility is preparing to breakout or breakdown soon. There is good reason for it due to the fear in the marketplace. Have investor fears reached their peak? Or are we just getting started? I think we will have the answer soon. On the price chart, it appears we have an ascending triangle. On the MACD, we have a symmetric triangle. The apex on the MACD lands on April 9.
I am fully expecting volatility to break upward. But the market overall is expecting this. What we think does not always happen. I still think odds point towards it, but either way, I expect we will know soon.
We can play volatility with ETFs like VIXY or 2x UVXY. When we expect volatility to go down there is SVXY but that fund has too much risk. It had over a 90% decline in February. Shorting SVXY could be an option if we expect volatility to go up, but my broker does not allow that. Does anyone know a broker that allows us to short SVXY?
Please share your thoughts and comments here.
I am fully expecting volatility to break upward. But the market overall is expecting this. What we think does not always happen. I still think odds point towards it, but either way, I expect we will know soon.
We can play volatility with ETFs like VIXY or 2x UVXY. When we expect volatility to go down there is SVXY but that fund has too much risk. It had over a 90% decline in February. Shorting SVXY could be an option if we expect volatility to go up, but my broker does not allow that. Does anyone know a broker that allows us to short SVXY?
Please share your thoughts and comments here.
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This is not advice to buy or sell. Trading volatility ETFs is very risky. But volatility is still helpful to watch though. Please do your own research and make your own investment decisions.
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The MACD did break down out of the pattern on the 1h chart, but the ascending triangle is still intact. There is room for the volatality to temporarily go down and remain in the triangle.
Trade closed manually:
I have closed all volatility funds but I am looking at a lower entry price, or else a breakout above the triangle. I am still looking for a possible breakout above, but if the prices drop below the rising trendline, then it is best to wait before taking a position.
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We have temporarily broken down out of the triangle and I advise waiting before any long-volatility entry. The stock market may get a relief rally. Look for new entries when the stock market is performing well.
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We may be getting a possible buying opportunity in VIXY soon! This will be confirmed by watching the stock market next week. I am looking for a short term high in the stock market approx April 25-26. After that I am looking for a short-term downtrend until approx May 17-20. Potentially the downtrend could last longer, but I still think May 17 may be more of a buying opportunity for stocks probably though. My target for Nasdaq 100 around April 25-26 is $6900 - $7000. If we get in that range, I believe it present a possibility to try to short Nasdaq 100. Either Short QQQ or buy PSQ or QID, or SQQQ. Additionally, we expect vix to go up when the stock market goes down. So if we move into the target zone on Nasdaq 100 on Apr 25-26 - $6900-7000 approx, then you could consider buying VIXY. This is not advice to buy and to sell, it is only for educational purposes only. Keep a stop loss in mind in case it goes the wrong direction. If you don't want to risk real money - try to paper trade it!
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See my link to Nasdaq 100
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Update that I expect another leg up in the stock market over the next few days, before the market moves downward. I expect we find a short term swing high between the dates of April 27-May 2. We can consider selling long positions in stocks when this happens. Also, I suspect it will be an opportunity to trade vixy or uvxy. I am not sure exactly how high the Nasdaq 100 will reach this swing high, but I am looking for approx 6800 or 6900 on Nasdaq 100, but we will have to take what we can get.