optionflow
Long

$VRX - Daily Chart & Analysis w/ Targets

NYSE:VRX   VALEANT PHARMACEUTICALS INTL I
211 0 1
Ok, a lot going on here so, let's put it all together.

Accumulation Summary:

We see a selling climax where institutions began loading, then a resistance test. You'll see the institution buying on every test of the range low. Final secondary test on 6-7 to shake out weak hands and accumulate as much stock as retail would sell. Lastly, declining volume over last 3 sessions and 1 final low volume sell off, indicating no more supply left and ready for mark up.

Technical Analysis:

- Bullish Macd and RSI divergence from Px            
- Sitting at S1 daily and below S3 on lower TF's
- At lower BB's & break above $29.04 w/ close = VSBD#1
- Macd at current level - Px             was at ~94.30
- Lots of gaps open above, none below
- Closed below developing VA of $25.80 Friday
- Currently below the 10ema and 20VWMA, but flattening
- Px             making higher highs & higher lows

Money Flow:

- Heavy option volume with LOTS of call buyers out to October. Approx 31K call OI in Oct             $60 strike. July ~15K in OI $40C's

- Max pain for last week was $26 and jumps to $30 for June 17. $90M in put premium and $12M in calls

- Huge block buys have been pouring in since March

- PAPA picked up 2.24M shares on 5/2

- 4 other executives w/ insider buys totaling ~500K shares on 5/12

- Institutional ownership - 66.7%

- Mutual Fund ownership - 12.9%

- Insider Ownership - 2.13%

Let's tie it up. We've seen heavy accumulation over the 3 months with huge naked option buys. Bullish macd divergences and a rising VA . Heavy insider buying coupled with large institutional ownership means there is very little supply. Declining volume is bullish after extreme volume and sell offs, which typically mark the bottom.

The risk here is being short. I am long common stock, June 17 $26C's, and July $30C's all loaded on Friday.

With max pain this week at $30, I expect to see a rip higher in this stock price, targeting $31.93. I will trim and trail, but let July calls and common run.
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