Options360

Bear market or FOMC market?

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AMEX:VTI   Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
Bear market or FOMC market?

The standard definition of a bear market is when major U.S. stock indices, such as the S&P 500 , drop by 20% or more from their peak. The signs of a weak or slowing economy are typically low employment, low disposable income, weak productivity, and a drop in business profits. In addition, any intervention by the government in the economy can also trigger a bear market. A secular bear market can last anywhere from 2 to 10 years and is characterized by below-average returns on a sustained basis. There may be rallies within secular bear markets where stocks or indexes rally for a period, but the gains are not sustained, and prices revert to lower levels. A cyclical bear market, on the other hand, can last anywhere from a few weeks to several months. Short selling, put options, and inverse ETFs are some of the ways in which investors can make money during a bear market as prices fall.

FOMC Prees Release October 21, 2021. Federal Reserve Board announces a broad set of new rules that will prohibit the purchase of individual securities, restrict active trading, and increase the timeliness of reporting and public disclosure by Federal Reserve policymakers and senior staff. Fed officials traded in individual stocks, real estate securities and stock funds in 2020, a year in which the central bank rolled out a range of pandemic response programs that placed official's day-to-day decisions at the core of what happened in financial markets. Three high-ranking policymakers resigned earlier than they had planned after news of the trading became public.

The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee announced that most of the restrictions will formally take effect on May 1, 2022. The rules will cover FOMC members , regional bank presidents and other officials including staff officers, bond desk managers and Fed employees who regularly attend board meetings. They also extend to spouses and minor children. It prevents senior officials from purchasing individual stocks or funds tracing business sectors and they ban investments in individual bonds, cryptocurrencies, commodities or foreign currencies, among other securities.

Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...

*3x lucky 7s of trading*

7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet

7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation

7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big, organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list

Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
AlertiT - notification
tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator
https://www.tradingview.com/u/growerik/#...
Comment:
Chart with 2 year:
Comment:
Chart without bonds:
Comment:
Low risk long hedge dca positioning by adjusting calls lower strikes and / or further dated expiry as the market goes down while holding near dated puts and / or rolling them.
Comment:
Chart with US index equities only:
Comment:
This week's economic calendar market up or down catalyst:
10/12 8:30am Producer Price Index (PPI)
10/13 8:30am Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Comment:
*options use 100x leverage you could lose everything*

There are many types of options trading strategies and positions, simple to sophisticated & hybrids. I group them into theta, delta or mix strategies and bull, bear or neutral positions. There's a buy side and sell side to every trade. If you check the open interest (OI), you can see how liquid it is. Check how wide the bid vs ask spread is.

Theta:
iron condor
iron fly
covered call
cash secured put
calendar spread
collar

Delta:
call
put
straddle
strangle
debit spread
credit spread

Bull:
call
put credit spread
call debit spread
cash secured put

Bear:
put
call credit spread
put debit spread
covered call

Neutral:
straddle
strangle
iron condor
iron fly
collar (often used for downside insurance)
calendar spread (short or long time)

Options important variables:
Strike = share price
itm, atm, otm = strike position
Expiry = Date of expiration
Value = H, L & Mark
Liquidity = bid vs ask spread
Direction = put or call
OI = open interest
V = volume
CP = chance of profit
IV = implied volatility
Delta = price
Theta = time
Vega = volatility
Gamma = momentum
Comment:
VTI long hedge idea:
hold / roll 10/14 expiry put
buy 4/21/2023 expiry call
Comment:
DIA long hedge idea:
hold / roll 10/14 expiry put
buy 4/21/2023 expiry call

Disclaimer

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