when playing vix it's important to know a few things. the spx skew, the volatility futures curve vs spot price, realized volatility, and the implied volatility of volatility. the SKEW has leveled off from 126-130 range (fairly elevated) to 116 lower range of the yearly average. that being said spx calls to puts iv differential are fairly weighted, but risk demand 2 standard deviations out are minimal. although the Vix futures curve is in backwardation it's very slight ($.13) spot is mainly fixated on EOW hedging demands due to trumps tariff increase threats, but I suspect its more of "priming the pump". most consider trade negotiations baked in, this considerable range of uncertainty could lead to sizable gains when the likely positive certainty is revealed via short covering. EUROZONE data came out springingly strong which negates my fears of an outstated move in the bund-10 year spread creating bond volatility. But VVIX is in an elevated state (100+). I define VVIX in ranges that define strategies. since VVIX describes option pricing within vix. (60-90) I would deem a tame range of VVIX and would seek out neutral buying strategies (debits). in an elevated range of VVIX (100-150), I would seek to sell premium. since vix stays in contango 80% of the time and 20% in backwardation. my tendency in both environments is to seek out duration positions. that being said id consider a bear call spread within Vxx, but hedge that exposure with a bear put spread within spy. the idea is that vvix is likely to fall. generating a faster IV crush rate within VXX but if VVIX were to continue to the top end of the range the spy bear put would continue to take advantage of increasing implied volatility and Delta move. I consider it unlikely to continue, but duration regardless and playing an effective strategy based on IV/ IV percentile is what separates a professional from an amateur. why hedge exposure/spread risk?
everyone has a plan, til they get punched in the face.
i say plan on getting punched in the face, but have some brass knuckles handy?
everyone has a plan, til they get punched in the face.
i say plan on getting punched in the face, but have some brass knuckles handy?