VVIX - where I look for complacency

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Sometimes bears get ahead of themselves and start pointing to "complacency!" so often that you figure when they give up and stop then complacency will be finally at hand.

Well I use the VVIX             to tell me when we have hit complacency, along with my "freakout indicator" which tracks the VIX             & VVIX             along with the S&P             % above DMAs (50 and 200) for the 100 and 500.

When all those things are complacent then the bears are usually off in a corner shaking their heads, which is when it is time to go all in short. For the VVIX             , 77 is the critical line that the index needs to sit under. The VIX             then (invariably) goes low and the S&P             is chugging away at highs, dragging all the garbage out there up with it.

On the chart is the channel that the VVIX             is in as it starts moving towards 77. Notice last June 5th where I have placed the Red arrows? There is your higher low on the VVIX             , starting its trend back upward. Also notice the freakout indicator - everything bunched at the top. The gray line leading downward is the VVIX             which is later followed by the cyan VIX             .

When we return to that same posture I will pick the weaklings first for my shorts and then move to the broader stuff. For now I just short tactically (like AMT             ).

BTW             - notice we are setting up for going under 77 in May? That is right when the liquidity effects of April 15 tax collections (happens every year) and EU/Chinese QE (happening this year) will be juicing the markets. Maybe enough juice to send things higher so that even the garbage is flying (like last June)

Happy hunting.
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