Hello dear padawans. I hope everybody is doing well. If you don't know VAXART, they are working on a covid vaccine that is taken orally; apparently the only one in the US (world?). The stock fell today after the first phase of tests yield no antibody response on volunteers (more here: cnb.cx/3oLwzBk).
They are continuing their research into a phase two so this is not all done for their vaccine yet. As you know, when these things happen investors overreact and the chain effect drives the price down; perhaps exaggeratedly in many cases. This may be one of those so we can use that in our favor.
I am using the 1hr timeframe here because it seems the action responded to the fib levels in the 1hr chart more closely than other indicators on the 4hr and daily charts. As you can see, the 0 level was tested twice and the price reacted by moving up. You can also see that that level was support for 6 days before the price spiked up so it seems it is a strong level. Other indicators are obviously turning bearish really quickly after that huge fall so they don't help us much here.
Even though the price bounced twice from that level it could still move back down since investors may still be deciding what to do from here. Also keep in mind this is the 1hr timeframe so it is normal to see these 10% intraday swings.
I may start a trade tomorrow if I can use one of those fib levels to anchor my entry. If it breaks below the 0 fib level the next support is the 50ema on the daily, around $8.5 but at the time of this writing, but I think it would most likely go down to around the $6.9 support and rest there.
I did a similar play on FOSSIL after the drop last week and cashed an easy 40% in a day. Maybe this one will pan out as well.
Safe trades!
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Perfect moment to jump into VXRT. You can place a stop loss just below the 0 fib level to limit your downside. Excellent risk/reward ratio.
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Post market price sitting right on the fib level. Hopefully it holds:
Trade closed manually
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Closed for a small loss. Not every speculative trade works. To the next.
Indeed. They also have a unique proposition (beyond oral vs. injection) in that they also include a N protein which may help it better address variants compared to MRNA or BNTX vaccines. Time will tell. I bought some near the bottom today (small position). Entirely speculative!
Safe_Trades
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@nbcharts, way to go my friend. I missed the bottom today. Hoping it is still a good play tomorrow.
TWTR_TraderChris
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@nbcharts, personally I sold out about 10 days ago, before the major ramp up. I sold for a couple reasons. First, I was concern about the phase 1 trial results. Secondly, even if the phase 1 trails were completely successful, they are way behind the other vaccines already in production and others who are in the later stages of testing. Some estimate even if they're completely successful in their testing, it'll be mid-year or later before they're approved. My thought is by the time the get their vaccine out and available to the public, much of the population will already have been vaccinated and it would be way too late for the bulk of the worlds population.
The latest news yesterday of course was not promising. Thought they will continue to move forward, it is a daunting task to overcome the various obstacles ahead for them.
Lastly, I read that one of the reasons that their stock jump so high before the news was some short squeeze going on with the stock as well. So do your research and be careful with your hard earned dollars.
I'm still keeping an eye on them ... I want to see how all this settles out before thinking about jumping back in.
nbcharts
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@farmerchris58, Fair points and clearly a speculative play given we don't know Phase 2/3 trial results, Anti-body v. N Protein benefits, and timeline of approval and availability. What does attract me to the company and stock in general is their approach to vaccination (novel idea and oral always better than injection). If COVID continues to have a presence in our lives, and other variants that are not treated by the current MRNA and BNTX vaccines, then this company may have a chance, provided their science proves out and the strong T-Cell Response/N-Protein/Ease of Use trumps the disadvantages. Don't know but I dabbled into the position (very small size) so I can keep a watch on this as the situation develops. Good points!
TWTR_TraderChris
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@nbcharts, your interest in the company mirrored mine. However, after a bit more research they have been in operation for about a dozen years. But only drug they have introduced was a flu vaccine ... and if I remember correctly have never had an operating profit. So ... yeah ... on the book cover, looks really enticing. but the book itself, not so much. I only wished I would held on for a few more days to catch that ride to the moon! haha. Good luck!!
nbcharts
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@farmerchris58, You might well be right. NVAX was similar in that their early trial results were disappointing and I was in it in the low single digits but gave up and look where it is now. You never know. Given a small position I am willing to lose it completely for the potential (and unknown) surprise hit in the next year or so. Thanks, I will need the luck and patience to stay with this ;)
TWTR_TraderChris
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@nbcharts, yeah ... when I got in at around 6, I thought the same. But when it about 7-8, I had a choice to take a small profit ... but the devil on my shoulder kept telling me to go for it ... however, after weighing the pros & cons ... I decided to let it go. But if you're already underwater anyways, do what's right for you.