iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETNArca
Description
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Notice the pattern. Down-wedges followed by a pop. The angles of the wedges are all very similar. The pops are also similar with 2 pops to around $50 and last pop to $78 (due to covid) .
Various time/$ measurements are shown including: 1. Top ones (light blue): the range of the pops. 2. Bottom ones (blue and pink): The range of pop-end to beginning of next pop. NOTE: The last cycle is not complete, so an overlapping blue and pink are shown corresponding to previous to see if they give any info. We are close to the blue on x-axis (time) so if a pop happens NOW, we would correlate cyclically. Would be great, but can only confirm with hindsight.
Brought out time cycle bubbles (green) to see if any more predictive patterns emerge. Not at very top of chart the arrow icons. These correspond to intersections of the SMA (smoothed moving average = orange line) and the ends of the green cycle time bubbles. The green arrows imply that they line up nicely. The orange arrows do not correlate to a big pop (but there was a "small" pop (50%, small not small!) hence i put orange instead of red).
Going to the last cycle which isn't complete, we place the question mark (purple) to see if the SMA will peak here. If we assume this pattern could be something, we would expect price action preceding the question mark to cause a dramatic rise in price to change the trajectory of SMA to form a peak. 1st and 3rd "pops" lasted about 30 days. The 2nd "pop" lasted about 90 days. The next cylce time (green bubble) ends 2/15, so we have roughly 100 days left.
SO.....this sucker should still pop (if these "patterns" mean anything. And it should be a good one (to create SMA peak). And it should be relatively "soon" (for position traders and some swing traders).
Caveats: This is not a great "stock" for day traders. This is not a great stock for position traders either, as there is a natural decay and this is a loser if held for too long. The is probably best as a swing trade and a hedge against market with plan to hold on until there is an exit or around 100 days. (by then election drama and hopefully covid drama will have also dissipated and hence if nothing happens by then it would make sense to abandon this play and cut losses.
If anyone has any insight as to a new bottom for this latest cycle please do share. Considering some price averaging, but i'm a bit gun shy now watching this one slip......
Hi, anything interesting now for this VXX idea? Thanks!
fchawla
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@tfinavia Had a weird little run a few days ago to $19 and now back down below $17. I bet when the harsh reality of Covid deaths sets in in a few weeks the markets may finally react. (Thanksgiving fallout just starting now and I’m sure Xmas and New Years not gonna help). According to the analysis I did, the timing for the price action is about right now! (4-12 bars preceding 2/15). We will see I guess!
tfinavia
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@fchawla, Thanks. Could there be a scenario where VXX goes up for the next two weeks followed by the next two weeks down into the new President inauguration and then five to six weeks of rise in to late February? That's what I'm charting for now.
fchawla
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@tfinavia, yes, of course. my analysis really only predicts an SMA peak on 2/15. it says nothing about what the preceding action looks like (other than sufficient price action to create the SMA peak). It also does NOT say what level the peak will be! (ie. Analysis only predicts a peak on the horizontal access = time = 2/15).
Good luck! I am curious to see what your scenario looks like and how you came to your conclusion. Please post and share :-) I have been adding and selling off on this position for past few weeks b/c its so up and down and i am trying to add some very short swing trades (few days) into my longer term (few months) swing trade). Part of the other reason i've shortened my trading time horizon is the major pop in the VXX hasn't panned out like i thought it may have by now :-/
tfinavia
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@fchawla, thanks for clarifying. I would appreciate you asking me to share my view but I have many contradicting indications that I'm down to simplifying to the following to save time, money and agony amongst the confusing state out there. I'm targeting VXX / UVXY high exactly when GOOG will touch it's 200 dma in the coming days. Google is in downtrend that preceded with double negative divergence in RSI and MFI. Hence, it looks to be going to touch 200 dma. When it touched 50 dma that's when VXX topped. The other thing I'm watching is SVXY to touch it's 200 dma for selling VXX / UVXY.