The daily-term trend according to the daily time frame is in a downtrend technically indicated by following:
• Dow pattern- lower tops and lower bottoms- B1,T1,B2,T2
• Price is currently trading below the downtrend-line.
The downtrend is confirmed by the cross of MA10 below MA20.
Prices are trading above the strong at 16.85(support 2) and below the 61.8% Fib retracement level at 20.40.
Focusing to the last downtrend move, 06/05/15-24/06/15, prices have tested twice the 61.8% Fib at 20.40.
analysis: If is high during the day relative to the average daily , it is a sign that the reversal is probably for real. Also should move with the trend. If prices are moving in an upward trend, should increase and vice versa. Moreover if the relationship between and price movements stars to deteriorate, it is usually a sign of weakness in the trend.
In case of divergence, must be observed rising and a clear downtrend on price chart (and vice versa). A occurs when prices fall to a new low while an oscillator fails to reach a new low. This situation demonstrates that bears are losing power, and that bulls are ready to control the market again - often a marks the end of a downtrend.
Therefore, I will recommend LONG POSITIONS for the no position holders on VXX only in case of a daily close above the 20.40. Take profit at 26.00 the 161.8% Fib level-R3. Stop loss should be a bit below the support level-S3, thus the stop loss is at 17.50.
For LONG-holders I will recommend to HOLD their long positions and adopt the same stop loss and take profit orders as mentioned above.
In case of move below the 61.8% Fib at 20.40, prices probably continue to move lower.