Since VYNE Therapeutics has enough cash (148m) for 2021 and even into 2022 (possible to turn profitable in 2021), they have a stable cash burn rate. Indicates their financials are strong. Break-even reaches 8500 prescriptions a week / 25 million quarter.
Furthermore, with two approved FDA drugs commercialized (AMZEEQ and ZILXI covered by three major PBMS, coverage ahead of schedule ) were AMZEEQ's regular price ($200-$250) will kick in by Q2 and Q3 (due to covid-19). According to today's knowledge, there is no insider selling—instead, insiders buy-in (Perceptive, Blackrock, own BOD, and management team buy).
On-going product pipeline: FMX114 recently announced a Multi-modal approach, and the intention is to diversify the pipeline. Phase 2 is covered by the budget. FCD105 was going through Phase 2A. FCD Approval expected End 2023/beginning 2024, and phase 3 will start end of this year. Budget coverage is expected.
Since the reverse split - lowered float from 252 million to 51 million shares outstanding.
VYNE has seven buy ratings with an average target of $20,86, a high target of $40 / a low target of $12.
I am confident we will see a closer trading price near $20 rather than $10 EOY 21.
This is not financial advice.
Trade active
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I want to update some key points on VYNE:
8 Oct- SEC 10B5-1 plan submitted for LePore's intention to buy 200k (shares in VYNE's ordinary shares at prevailing interest rates within the next 12 months.)
9th Oct - Piper Sandler announced AMZEEQ total Rx (TRx) up versus prior week 2,439 vs. 2,396. QTD growth rate of 55% in 3Q.
7th Dec - LePore’s first insider’s buy commitment (12,500 at $6.82 PS)
26th Jan - 2 Offerings happened, 1 ended as a market offer, the other at $2.37 ($9.48 PS) for 50m. Cash of 132m in hand the last conference call confirmed.
1st Feb - Perceptive Advisors declares their stake increased (The biggest investor with 18.44% current)
2nd Feb - Blackrock (7.1%) declares their stake increased
12th Feb - Reverse Split (1 for 4) reduced float to 51.33M
1st Mar - Announced new pipeline FMX114
16th Mar - Lepore’s second insider’s buy (12,500 at $7.405), with 25,000 more shares outstanding to go based on his commitment.
The constant red candles on this one makes the chart extremely bearish, no major negative news, but it's in the 52 week low area. You could argue that the hedge fund shorting and a few institutions trimming their positions, but still seems like the R/S killed the momentum of this stock completely. Waiting for the stock to reverse from here, given the fact the overall market sentiment is extremely bearish to the small biotech companies, the computer relentlessly short sell the shares here.
Lovelyfluffybeard
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@dzekochen1202 VYNE has great products and will do just fine long term. This fall didnt had anything to do with the R/S, it has been used as an negative argument against the company. If you look on the biotech sector ALL have been trading in similar pattern. I still have confidence in the company, $20 EOY. Guess we will see who is right in the end.
aravsatz
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Great point of view, and perfect on insiders / institutions Buying.