Woodside Energy swing trade entry point and targets

Feb 15

Thanks for viewing,

I'm not swing trading this, I'm buying and holding. Although, I have only bought half of my eventual position and am looking for a point to add the other half. This is what I came up with;

The fundamental story of Woodside is very positive; low break-even costs, significant investment in future production, geographically diversified, high dividends, crude oil has been rising recently, and dividends forecast to grow by 50% over the next few years. Woodside pays more in dividends now than it did when the share price was at all-time highs above $60. I always start with fundamentals. Next, find an entry point.

I found an EMA trend-line that fits the price action over the past few years amazingly well. You can see the 144EMA acts as support and resistance (why? I don't know). Back in Jan 2022 price exceeded it, was pushed lower, but failed to close the day much below the trendline forming a dragonfly doji or whatever you call it. It just signifies that selling pressure was unable to over-power the bulls. Once above the trend-line the next trading day, it remained above the trend-line for a number of years.

What I expect, either price pushes above the trend-line and successfully re-tests, pushing up to between $36 and $42 within a few months. Or the price is rejected at the trend-line and is pushed lower. In that case, I wouldn't expect it to go much below $23. But if it goes lower, the trade still has a 2:1 profit to loss set-up if you put a stop at $18.60.

Either I buy on a break-out at approx $26.35 or at or near $23 on a dip. I suspect, it will be in the near-term on a break-out / retest.

I'm buying on a 10 to 20 year time horizon because I expect shares that I buy in early 2026 will return a dividend of around 10 to 12% over the long-term while the share price also appreciates. I am buying oil and gas BECAUSE it is unpopular. If it was popular, the trade would be crowded, I wouldn't be getting a good price, and it wouldn't be attractive.

I don't expect much resistance until above $30 and due to the multi-year share price decline I am hoping that most of the holders who were carrying a loss have already sold or are just going to stay holding.

The "net zero" narrative got ahead of itself. We still need oil and gas for at least the next 30 years, possibly longer. Actually, pushing wind and solar is very positive for Natural Gas as it provides relatively cheap base-load power supply that wind and solar cannot offer. I am assuming that major cities will want to keep the lights on...

That is all

Feb 19

Trade active

Well, the EMA trend-line has certainly been exceeded. I'm watching what happens next for an entry (the second half of my position). If the local high of $27.30 is take out I will FOMO in, but I expect there to be some interaction with the trend-line (around $26.50) before then. What may happen is a dip back down to the trend-line (or a little bit below) and then support picks up and forms a hammer / dragonfly candle to demonstrate that prices are about to rocket higher.

Apr 6

Note

07/04/26 Happy Easter everyone. Decided to add another 50% to my holdings. If prices stay elevated, the net margin of WDS will expand possibly more than expected. I’m putting net margin tentatively at 75% higher than last quarter IF prices stay high. Yes, the price has gone up, but the net margin has likely gone up a lot more in percentage terms… so I feel that WDS is actually cheaper now than when I bought it at $25.

If prices don’t stay elevated, I can trim or add more at a lower price, continuing my med to long term (5-10 years) view that WDS is a solid business.