At channel top, profit taking time by all indicators.
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And now for the hard part, it will likely retest the high 2 or 3 times, it may shake me out of a short or 2. but I need to be calm, and stand firm, and do not change my rules at any time. be very very very disciplined. << Key point. Time will tell if we are truly at a reversal zone, or if this stock is doing something completely out of character. (last time it was this high on the RVI scale was Nov 2016.)
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Currently I am out. I am watching for a pullback and test, then I will re-enter for the final quarter run.
Trade closed manually
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Closed , waiting for clear direction for re-enter with the trend continuation, or pullback. A. The Trend is at a end, <probably not. B. The trend is about to pullback. <most likely C. The trend is taking a rest, and about to blast off. <maybe
Retail customers can be a fickle bunch. One hint of a change in the wind, and they panic. Typically in a volatile-bull markets, it has to make some serious deep corrections, to keep the steep bullish trend rolling. Which fuels the volatility. and around and around we go. Great for swing traders.
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We got a small pullback and return to bullish trend. The market is very over-heated, will it make it to 80 by the end of October remains to be seen.
@IanHarper94, Whats your thoughts, all the recent huge investments?
CryptoHarper
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@4XRandalll, I think its so bullish that we will see more upside in the sector before we see downside. TA points to that to: Ascending triangle on CRON, APH looking like it'll gap up Monday, Canopy was heading back to ATH at the end of the day on friday. I think we're getting quite toppy but I think it'll go up before it goes down.
from a more macro perspective if you look at Canopy's performance since it IPO'd it has seen healthy runs and retracements. This was all in anticipation of legal which will happen next month so I think we could be entering the "bubble" phase of a more macro cannabis bull run. Classic market cycles, look at bitcoin as an example: 2015 was the end of the 2014 bear market and the beginning of a 2 year long bull run that started with runs and retracements and ended with all out FOMO dot-com esque bubble. There is a good chance the same could happen in the cannabis sector.
4XRandalll
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@IanHarper94, thanks for your thoughts,
speaking of normal market behaviour, I would not be surprised to see a correction to the 49.00/49.20 zone before it makes it run to Oct 17th and Nov Sell off.
CryptoHarper
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@4XRandalll, Yeah I can see that happening. I think its quite variable, like if we didn't have that Diageo news we could've seen more profit taking on friday and probably a pullback next week, but after that and with October fast approaching I'm wondering will we run like crazy into sales followed by everyone selling the news, or maybe even the mass public could buy once they see the news media coverage on legal sales to push Canopy up to $100 before a huge crash that will last for a couple months.
It would be a good idea to compare US MJ stocks and Colordo first day of sales for a comparison.
The other scenario I see happening is a sell off throughout September which gets reversed by the media coverage of legal sales to bring us up in another wave.
The fact the S&P is hitting ATH now again makes me think the former, although less likely, is certainly a possibility worth taking into consideration.
4XRandalll
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@IanHarper94, it may be the classic, buy the rumour, sell the news scenario.
Its the possible correction, that I am looking to short. Then buy the swing again.
ElpGrniyer
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@4XRandalll, finished at 60.00 as you trendlined it, Tomorrow will tell the direction
zr0s
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Looking at the weekly WEED projects to 80 for the run in Oct
zr0s
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@zr0s, ....I'm out of my CGC 01/18/19 25.00 CALLS today, .... WEED hit the weekly TL. Also sold HEXO & VIVO. Sidelines for now.
4XRandalll
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If we play another round of pointless predicting,
and my thesis is correct,
It may make a double or triple top,
then a pullback, probably to fib 618 zone (about 35-40%)
then a run to oct 17th.
The next high should be about 70 zone.
It appears that about 2 years of valuation of this company is being priced into the market right now, this week. crazy.