Macro conditions are turning hostile. The commercial real estate market, especially office, is structurally impaired in certain segments. Vacancy rates in major US metros are above 20%. Office prices are down 30–40% from their 2022 peaks. With over $1.2 trillion in CRE debt maturing by 2027, refinancing risk is climbing, fast.
Wells Fargo is sitting in the crosshairs. Its latest earnings showed net interest income down 13% year-on-year. Revenue fell 6%. The top line is weakening just as credit risk is rising. Commercial loan charge-offs surged to $923 million in 2023, up from just $152 million the year before. That’s a sixfold increase.
Of that, the bulk came from office-related exposure. The bank has set aside more reserves, but at year-end 2023, its allowance for credit losses on commercial real estate was $1.9 billion, just 2.6% of its $72 billion CRE book. That ratio looks optimistic.
Wells Fargo’s total book value of equity stands at around $170 billion. If CRE losses reach 5–7% of the commercial book, well within historical stress-case scenarios, that implies $3.5 to $5 billion in write-downs. That’s a 2–3% direct hit to equity. Not catastrophic, but meaningful when earnings are already trending lower.
The risk isn’t just the loss itself, it’s the market response. Investors are not pricing in a deep CRE downturn. A fresh wave of write-offs could hit sentiment and compress the stock’s valuation multiple. In a rising loss cycle, confidence matters more than capital ratios.
Until we see a reset in CRE values or more aggressive derisking from management, the stock remains vulnerable. The earnings outlook is soft. The balance sheet is exposed. This is a short or, at best, an underweight.
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
Wells Fargo is sitting in the crosshairs. Its latest earnings showed net interest income down 13% year-on-year. Revenue fell 6%. The top line is weakening just as credit risk is rising. Commercial loan charge-offs surged to $923 million in 2023, up from just $152 million the year before. That’s a sixfold increase.
Of that, the bulk came from office-related exposure. The bank has set aside more reserves, but at year-end 2023, its allowance for credit losses on commercial real estate was $1.9 billion, just 2.6% of its $72 billion CRE book. That ratio looks optimistic.
Wells Fargo’s total book value of equity stands at around $170 billion. If CRE losses reach 5–7% of the commercial book, well within historical stress-case scenarios, that implies $3.5 to $5 billion in write-downs. That’s a 2–3% direct hit to equity. Not catastrophic, but meaningful when earnings are already trending lower.
The risk isn’t just the loss itself, it’s the market response. Investors are not pricing in a deep CRE downturn. A fresh wave of write-offs could hit sentiment and compress the stock’s valuation multiple. In a rising loss cycle, confidence matters more than capital ratios.
Until we see a reset in CRE values or more aggressive derisking from management, the stock remains vulnerable. The earnings outlook is soft. The balance sheet is exposed. This is a short or, at best, an underweight.
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
The Blueberry Team
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.