I posted about Wish a few weeks back so please feel free to check that idea out, but long story short it looks like my double bottom theory has been invalidated. This has been an extremely difficult stock to hold (my cost avg. is just under $3) but I still do not believe that the price accurately reflects the value of this stock and that it has potential to reach the high single digits within the next year or two. What I wanted to draw everyone's attention to is the volume over the last 2 trading days. This stock typically sees 7-14m per day in volume. HOWEVER, yesterday the volume spiked massively to 30m and today hit 45m, which is absolutely massive.
So the question becomes what is causing this huge volume spike? Piotr is dumping his shares like crazy, and this is almost certainly him selling millions of shares. But why would he decide to dump so aggressively now rather than selling smaller amounts more frequently as to not depress the share price? I've seen speculation that he needs to reduce his holdings to 5% per a mysterious agreed upon buyout condition but that's a tough sell. Regardless, this is pretty unique behavior and large volume spikes tend to happen before large momentum shifts in stocks. I would anticipate another day of large volume tomorrow.
If anyone has other ideas feel free to share. There are still some big funds very heavily invested in Wish that do not want to see it fail. I realize how speculative this seems but it does look like something big is going on in the background with Wish. The recent CEO's departure would also fit well with the idea of a buyout or a big shakeup. Thoughts?
Peter not selling that much! It’s mostly panicked / scared / margin called retail selling here. 1. Fear R/S 2.Fear of bankruptcy (LOL) for those you have never read the annual letter the only year wish could actually go bankrupt was 2021 ( huge completions for ads/costs, insane low delivery times nps ⬇️⬇️⬇️, insane bottlenecks as a result a lot of losses from products that never reached their destination since wish was refunding 100% those customers. That’s why they pulled they ipo!!! Instead of going to another VC funding it was the perfect timing to raise so much money so cheap!!! 3. Ex CEO getting fired, who cares? If that was a gameplan all along? Do you know how much money investors saved due to his “resignation”. Things to consider for the future 1. West middle class shifts downwards 2. Big retailers avoid stocking many products, wish offers unlimited selection! 3.Shipping costs ⬇️ 4.Bottlenecks solving/solved 5. NPS ⬆️ 6. Interest rates remain a question for now but the worst are already priced in 7. Even if a recession hits this is priced in as well!! Now there are various scenarios whether wish is going for a buyout or not. This is a very hard question to answer but you should better focus where wish should be trading in 12-18months from now, taking into consideration all of the above. Even if the market tanks another 20-30% in the worst case scenario, we’ll it can go as low as 0.70 or below dunno but that would be a huge distortion and a fantastic opportunity to add more imo. However right now it seems like a bottom many sings pointing at it besides volume…
1. Fear R/S 2.Fear of bankruptcy (LOL) for those you have never read the annual letter the only year wish could actually go bankrupt was 2021 ( huge completions for ads/costs, insane low delivery times nps ⬇️⬇️⬇️, insane bottlenecks as a result a lot of losses from products that never reached their destination since wish was refunding 100% those customers. That’s why they pulled they ipo!!! Instead of going to another VC funding it was the perfect timing to raise so much money so cheap!!! 3. Ex CEO getting fired, who cares? If that was a gameplan all along? Do you know how much money investors saved due to his “resignation”.
Things to consider for the future
1. West middle class shifts downwards
2. Big retailers avoid stocking many products, wish offers unlimited selection! 3.Shipping costs ⬇️ 4.Bottlenecks solving/solved 5. NPS ⬆️ 6. Interest rates remain a question for now but the worst are already priced in 7. Even if a recession hits this is priced in as well!! Now there are various scenarios whether wish is going for a buyout or not. This is a very hard question to answer but you should better focus where wish should be trading in 12-18months from now, taking into consideration all of the above. Even if the market tanks another 20-30% in the worst case scenario, we’ll it can go as low as 0.70 or below dunno but that would be a huge distortion and a fantastic opportunity to add more imo. However right now it seems like a bottom many sings pointing at it besides volume…