Is crude oil going up or down next?

BLACKBULL:WTI   West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil cash
Oil prices rebounded on Thursday, up more than 2%, as it is expected that Russia will significantly reduce its holdings next month. However, concerns about demand were exacerbated by a strengthening US dollar and a significant increase in US crude oil inventories.

On the news front, Russia plans to reduce its oil exports through western ports by as much as 25% in March, exceeding the previously announced reduction of 500,000 barrels per day, which boosted oil prices during yesterday's session. The US dollar index has risen for the third consecutive trading day, and the latest meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday showed that most policymakers agreed that the risk of high inflation required further interest rate hikes. According to the US Energy Information Administration ( EIA ), crude oil inventories increased sharply by 7.6 million barrels to 479 million barrels as of February 17.

On the technical side, after the previous M-shaped pattern, the head and shoulders pattern is also forming, which is a stronger bearish signal than the M-shaped pattern. The overall downward trend is still in place, with bears outnumbering bulls.

In terms of strategy, the news side is hedged between long and short positions, and there will be no significant changes in the short term. The situation of oil prices fluctuating up and down between $70 and $80 is temporarily difficult to break. On the technical side, the short-term rebound will not be sustainable as the head and shoulders pattern is forming. Therefore, my personal view is still bearish in the overall direction.

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