Keeping the previous analysis continued, we slightly modify our expectations for the motion track and the target price. The slowdown in the exchange rate decelerates. Movement will look like a widening but downward-looking band. Correction and main waves can be the same size. Therefore, the trader may be a winner with trailing strategies. The target price for declining movement may be around 41. A further 18% decrease from the current level.
Matching my sentiments on Oil price (separate but related matter).
meszaros
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@Captain_Walker, Are you expecting a bigger fall or turning to this level?
Captain_Walker
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@meszaros, A strange thing happened in 2008-ish - when there was a recession. See the chart below. Major corrections on stock markets globally point to probability of another recession in the making around now (2018-2019). This one could be more serious than 2008, if it happens. I was reading somewhere that oil price heading south, is a feature of recessions. (I'm no financial guru, so don't quote me - I don't know if it's true). As me crystal ball broke some time ago and is beyond repair, I just follow trends and probabilities. The greater probability for Oil is south (at this point in time). As I've missed the boat, I'm not chasing south. If I was earlier in the trend south, I would have held on a short.
meszaros
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@Captain_Walker, I understand. If I understand your words, you will still have to wait for 41USD and the oil level below. We'll see. I'm waiting for slow motion. If the decreasing movement continues to accelerate, the likelihood of your saying will increase.
Captain_Walker
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@meszaros, If I was shorting and I was well in equity, it wouldn't matter. No sure about waiting or what waiting on 41USD is about. My methodology is probably different, cuz I don't wait on particular price points to make decisions. I go with wherever there is an area suggesting a turning point, and where the trend is heading, irrespective of any particular price level. In general I've learned that trailing a time frame less than the obvious one (in the case of oil 1D, is advantageous) - this is not advice!
meszaros
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@Captain_Walker, I'm not selling WTI right now. In the longer term, I expect oil prices to rise, so I keep stocks of several oil companies. But to raise these prices would also be necessary for oil between 65 and 70 usd.
Captain_Walker
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@meszaros, In my recent screencast, I bailed out of a long position. I wouldn't sell (short) now cuz I'm late and I don't do FOMO. So if I've missed I've missed. I too expect a possible rebound in the next few days to weeks (which may never happen). At that point if it's favourable, amma short! It would be another great opportunity to teach FOMO bulls a lesson! LOL