@harleyfx, Thank you for your comment. Yes, there is a chance of 47 usd. When the oil moves on the red wave track. I can't see this now technically. But in 2-3 days it is possible.
Captain_Walker
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Whilst anything is possible, not everything is likely to happen. I'm sceptical about your position analysis. I'm not saying your analysis is wrong. I look at it from a different perspective. We are like blind men groping at the proverbial elephant - so we make different interpretations of what we 'feel'. In my analysis I see different things. 1. There is/was a broadening falling wedge in a bull market (megaphone) - usually an indication of trend resumption.
2. Price has expanded and fallen back into the wedge.
3. There are probabilities both for the north and south now.
4. I've seen other cases where price rockets back out of the wedge, but others were price has collapsed.
There is no way to predict the future in markets - else we'd all be billionaires. So - I use probabilities in my own mind based on what I see and other knowledge.
There are strange things happening with the 'Indians'. A few weeks ago the market went north like there was no tomorrow. The future was 'orange' when Modi was elected into power. There was jubilation across India. Modi was said to herald a new era. But Modi can't fight the whole world of geopolitics and macroeconomics. What happened next was that Tariff man decided to gun for the Indians, and sentiments began to fade. A massively pumped up market began to deflate.
Now the Indians are facing reality of cyclical global economic decline. So I'm cautious with a Daily time frame. I'm short on a lower time frame for better controlled losses.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I will re-evaluate my lower time frame positions.
Captain_Walker
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@Captain_Walker, Sorry for any confusion about the Indians. They have little to do with OIL. Those were just some other thoughts that creeped in, about other things we spoke about. The first 4 numerated points are about OIL. I'm short on OIL and the Indians.
meszaros
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@Captain_Walker, I am not a great acquaintance of the Indian market fundamentally. And if I compare myself to your knowledge, I don't know anything about them at all. Nonetheless, I see that the Indian technical analysis of the past few days still keeps track of the IND50USD movement. So far I haven't got much more information about the Indian markets, so I can only say that I accept the argument and look forward to the technical signal that differs from my strategy and throw the analysis.
meszaros
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@Captain_Walker, I always read your comments with great interest because it is extremely accurate and carries a lot of information. Our commercial and analytical strategies are different. My current analysis is not damaged yet. The exchange rate follows. I see the current WTI movement as a sequential movement, regardless of the underlying panic. It goes away tomorrow, everyone sleeps and finishes the two wave-size sequences and everything starts with the next wave sequences. The current sequence may be 1-2-2-4. Today, the Americans shot an Iranian drone. Its escalation can be a fundamental basis for a rise.
Captain_Walker
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@meszaros, >>Today, the Americans shot an Iranian drone. Its escalation can be a fundamental basis for a rise.<<
I'm not too sure about that. Many people think that Iran is important to Oil price but many others think differently. The shooting of the drone was not the only thing. 10 days ago, Iran seized a foreign vessel, causing much concern.
If oil price is tempted to move north based on the above, there is the problem of fear of war which is bearish pressure on DJI and Oil. So fear of war could be both bearish and bullish at the same time on oil price. I think fear of war has a bigger effect on US Dollar (to rise), which in turn may be heavily bearish to Oil. Lemme know how you see the balance of these complex speculations.
meszaros
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@Captain_Walker, Yes, speculation is very complex. Today, the ECB has announced that they are thinking of creating an inflation band. The euro turned south. After a few hours of uncertainty, he went north again. I still look forward to the appreciation of the euro. This can be beneficial for the oil.
Captain_Walker
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@meszaros, Caution though on EUR. The whole of Europe is disintegrating and so the EURO will go with it.
Do your research. QE by the ECB is about to start up. Is that likely to strengthen the EURO? I don't think so.
meszaros
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@Captain_Walker, You are right. QE is confident that it will not strengthen the euro. But I think it's still far away. 1-2 months. In the meantime, the euro can be strengthened.