I think we head remarkably lower before we break out of this long-term downtrend. The triangle will be breached eventually, but I believe the $35 target level may be in order this year before moving higher again. What will they use as an excuse for such a scourge? "Saudi/OPEC turns on the taps to fight US Shale oil market share?"
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Alas, it was COVID-19... only Bill Gates himself would have been able to predict that!
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C- wave was a 1.382 Fib extension of A... i'm guessing we saw this extension due to extreme fears in the market given the pandemic response and subsequent shut downs. Please note the timeline for the drop, however. This was in the cards long before anyone was aware that a pandemic was around the corner... 1.0 to .768 Fib level may have played out otherwise. Price and sentiment drives major markets for the most part. News and talking heads are usually an excuse, after the fact.
well, we did see Saudi/Russia disagreement over production and of course COVID-19, which takes us to generational lows...now seems ripe for a new cycle to begin. WTICOUSD today at $18.30, futures trading in the $10-$11 range. We are getting close to bottoming, but could play out still over the next month or two.