I really like US STEEL down here. I've had my eye on this one for some time but the trend is still technically pointing down. Following the price direction and watching strength/momentum is key. I can speculate and say this is an excellent buy (I think it's fantastic).. However, the trend is still pointing down even though I see value here. Notice the hidden bearish divergence it's been forming for months..Be smart and stick to price direction. It could flush 50-60% lower before finding a final bottom..In my opinion it might be best to wait for confirmation of trend change and strength.
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This is SLX steel sector ETF. This is something big to watch..
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X:SLX ratio. This is telling. While stupid cheap, it shows a bearish divergence.. not sure when it's finished. Should be wildly bullish when it breaks above.. but when?
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wow.. yeehaw
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wow. I'm now really hoping for a retracement but not sure when or how long it'll take to get there... history tends to rhyme so let's see what happens. The short version of the story is: US STEEL BROKE OUT.
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yah, the retracement. I hope it goes lower (12-14). I look at this zone as a buy zone. Good things ahead for X BRING IT. LET'S GET MOVING ALREADY
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X / SLX ratio-
Clearly, US steel bottomed and broke out. Now, it's time for me to ease back in for the longer term. This looks incredibly bullish. I'm hoping for a deeper retrace but this is what I was hoping for so far
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I'm really hoping to see further consolidation but it could go higher before lower before the ultimate larger run
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240min candles potential trend here. Let's see if this serves as a short-term bottom here. If not, I'll be much more interested in X lower!
To me March lows could be the bottom... It coincides with the 2016 lows down trend line (Renko, 600 daily periods linear regression with 2 deviations easy overall view). For sure longer term trend is down but the double bottom could be it. What is your buy price target?
gghsusa
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@MRPAPAYA001, Here's my current strategy. I have long exposure that I plan to hold for the 5-6 year trade. But I also have some short exposure (a strangle) to hedge for the potential drop. The leverage of put options should add a layer of insurance if it were to drop to say something ridiculous like $2.00-4.00 etc.. Nothing is off the table in this market. When oil trades negative $30 dollars you realize the rabbit hole is deep.
gghsusa
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@MRPAPAYA001, I'd love to see your chart on X if you have one. Thanks
MRPAPAYA001
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How high until retrace lolol, 24?
gghsusa
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@MRPAPAYA001, haha... yeah I'm actually hoping for some type of consolidation and retest of support but she's free as a bird right now. I would love to see it pullback with market and maybe hit the 12-14 range one more time.. might take a while if it comes at all.
MRPAPAYA001
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@gghsusa, it was a very profitable trade but I have exited too soon as usual. Will continue monitoring for pull back.
gghsusa
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@MRPAPAYA001, glad to hear! I also scaled out into this and I swore to myself I wouldn't.. it just moved so quickly. I will wait patiently for retracement.. This is a situation where it wouldn't be a terrible idea to build a strangle. What I like to do is hold long (2023 calls, etc..) and cushion with some puts for retracement. I believe this trade is a 5-6 year trade with a lot of upside so it's ashame to jump off that long train ride early. In my experience, it's much harder to hold profit than building a trade and being negative. Greed causes us to take what profit we see without realizing how much potential it has if we leave it alone.. very hard.
gghsusa
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@MRPAPAYA001, This is what I'm hoping for.. maybe a quick flush followed by a continued rally into spring..