SILVER - never believe parabolic moves for OANDA:XAGUSD by Paraman666

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GOLD recently invalidated my bearish eliott wave count by making new all time high, however I am still sure, that precious metals are ready for big move down. Why ? When retail is buying gold and silver , then who is selling ? I would say that smart money are selling.
And silver is without doubt in downtrend on larger timeframes. After 70% decline during 2011-2015, price is moving sideways since 2015 until now. And when you see making new low in 3 WAVES, then parabolic move up, then it´s very often only wave C in ABC expanded flat correction and that´s how I am seeing the chart of silver right now.
Price is currenty testing very strong resistance and what goes up like, usually goes down same way. But I will not definitely short silver right now, I want to see some big reversal, which will indicate, that trend is back in DOWNTREND.

Comments

But what can we do now to make the dollar rise? Second outbreak? I don't think so. Do we need a new black swan incident?

qq515693705

@qq515693705, I don´t know what may cause it, I could be absolutely wrong and after silver has decent correction to 20 USD, it may continue in uptrend, but as I said, new trend just can´t start with parabolic move.

As much as I love silver and Im one of the big silver bugs, I DO HATE myself for seeing the same thing :)). That ABC correction, in a perfect 3-3-5 formation is killing me. Right on spot, if everybody is buying, who is selling. It should visit the lows again if this is an irregular expanding flat. Keep this post updated :)

JackyG

@JackyG, Yeah, if we are right, then "sheeps" will be slaughtered, as always in this crazy financial world.

Paraman666

the only problem I do have with this setup are the fundamentals. This could happen if we get another cash frenzy like in march, but otherwise I do think that central banks stimulus, debt, and inflation in general will push metals higher. (BUT, there would be room for one more play :))

Oke, Paraman666 if the gold goes further and the SP500 falls then the silver will go further too? Because gold and silver move together like Lessie and her master.

Uhura

@Uhura, I think everything will fall together, because of dollar, as we saw it during corona sell off. So if SP500 will go down, gold and silver will follow and DXY (dollar index) will go up.

Paraman666

@Paraman666,
Undoubtedly, such a parabolic rise is usually followed by huge falls. But will a dollar collapse not bring a strong precious metal appreciation? Anyway, what do you think with the collapse of a dollar will btc start?

Uhura

@Uhura, I think dollar will be the strongest currency for next months, not collapsing. If dollar will rise, then stocks, btc, crude oil and precious metals will go down, in current environment, all assets are tightly correlated.