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slicedmelon
Jun 27, 2017 3:06 AM

Silver the confusing trade 

SilverOANDA

Description

Hey all,

I think my count is correct.. I don't know what was that spike down I have it at a wave C corrective - but volume says it was a genuine sell..

We are back in that triangle looking structure...

Long only when price breaks that purple trendline convincingly...

Short everything else.. (I am leaning towards shorts at the moment if it was a day trade .... I am keeping long on the longer term trades...)
Comments
Mr_Dent
Just some food for thought.

Swap Dealers have been loading up on silver over the past month into this decline.. Typically they (banks) are the ones bashing it..

Also, PBOC has been pumping liquidity this month and this has led to some oversold rallies across the commodity complex. I rank Participants net position and activity, scoring it on a 18m + 5yr basis & they come in at 89% now which is rarely seen.. Statistically speaking you tend to see Silver out-perform over 20-40 trading days when we see this setup..

Good Luck!
slicedmelon
@Mr_Dent,thanks for that.. because I am technical I am going to have to google and just find out what you just wrote :D
Mr_Dent
@slicedmelon,

Any style that works for you is just fine. Just remember, outside of the scalping and swing trading we are doing, there is Supply & Demand forces and very large players out there that can impact price movement.. If technicals are equivalent of knowing all the odds in Poker, then reading & understanding money flow is akin to reading the other players at the table..

Each week the CFTC releases the commitment of traders report where the largest holders of positions must disclose their activity & holdings in the futures market. So you get to see what the actual Producers & Merchants are doing (these are your Silver Miners & Users of the metal like jewelers) as well as Leveraged Funds and Bank Dealers.

So when I mentioned swap dealers above, these are the Banks that are holding positions in their swap books. They happen to be extremely long right now - When you see this activity on price declines it's an indicator that there is demand from the most heavily capitalized players in the world.. i.e. expect higher silver prices in the next 20-40 days - Use your technicals to trigger

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is one of the largest Money Printers out there - When they inject liquidity into the system it finds it's way into risk assets.. So we have started to see a bid in commodities this month, and this fuel is definitely part of the reason for this. It pays to watch what they are doing.

Cheers
slicedmelon
@Mr_Dent, again your generosity is very appreciated and I shall look into this in the next week. Thank you again.
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