FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
172 7 4
Altered my green count with a truncated wave (v) of 1 of (3). The green count remains a variation on the continuation of the white (1)-(2) count. Taking out the August and July highs should lead to an explosive rally to at least 23, but possibly into the 30's. I'll have refined targets for the green sub-structure once green wave 2 completion is confirmed.
Could tomorrow be a catalyst for the rally? Sure, anything's possible. Just recognize this set-up has been several months in the making and any 'news' tomorrow is incidental in my opinion.
A break down below 17.84 could clearly invalidate the white count, infringing into the price territory of wave 1 of (3). The green wave 2 can go a bit deeper, but I'd expect a turn very soon IF the heart of a 3rd is upon us.
A note about fibs. Tradingview.com only calculates fib extensions in arithmetic terms. It's a known limitation and one several members have commented on requesting an update, myself included. In fact, I'd be a "Pro" here if their Elliott Wave tools were slightly improved... Anyway, these lines represent log-based fib extension which had to be calculated separately and entered manually. Since it's labor intensive, I'll keep them to waves of intermediate degree and higher.
[Special thanks to Avi Gilburt for suggesting the potential truncation in the green count. See his new silver             article on Seeking Alpha.]
Support hasn't changed. Price hovered over the target region after dropping earlier in the day. Divergences set up on short time frames.
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Testing the bottom of my old support box. Love to see an impulsive bounce form tomorrow...
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Finallly, a reaction off support. I'm leaning more towards the green count but the difference in immaterial until this impulse plays out. Has a much more profound impact on later developments.
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Unclear whether wave (iii) is complete, or whether this is the completion of wave i where (iii)-(iv) of i were small compared to (ii). I don't see negative divergence forming yet, so quite possible wave (iii) is still underway in which case I'll keep moving it higher on this time frame...
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nick.holland78 PRO nick.holland78
I should state "where wave (iv) was small compared to wave (ii)"...
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Here's my working thesis on this impulse. Wave iv of (iii) could certainly go a bit deeper. Holding over the support box I've drawn is key, and that box will likely move higher based on the end of wave (iii). (It's a 38.2 - 50% retrace of wave (iii).)
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nick.holland78 PRO nick.holland78
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