FX:XAGUSD   Silver / U.S. Dollar
172 7 4
Altered my green count with a truncated wave (v) of 1 of (3). The green count remains a variation on the continuation of the white (1)-(2) count. Taking out the August and July highs should lead to an explosive rally to at least 23, but possibly into the 30's. I'll have refined targets for the green sub-structure once green wave 2 completion is confirmed.
Could tomorrow be a catalyst for the rally? Sure, anything's possible. Just recognize this set-up has been several months in the making and any 'news' tomorrow is incidental in my opinion.
A break down below 17.84 could clearly invalidate the white count, infringing into the price territory of wave 1 of (3). The green wave 2 can go a bit deeper, but I'd expect a turn very soon IF the heart of a 3rd is upon us.
A note about fibs. Tradingview.com only calculates fib extensions in arithmetic terms. It's a known limitation and one several members have commented on requesting an update, myself included. In fact, I'd be a "Pro" here if their Elliott Wave tools were slightly improved... Anyway, these lines represent log-based fib extension which had to be calculated separately and entered manually. Since it's labor intensive, I'll keep them to waves of intermediate degree and higher.
[Special thanks to Avi Gilburt for suggesting the potential truncation in the green count. See his new silver             article on Seeking Alpha.]
Here's my working thesis on this impulse. Wave iv of (iii) could certainly go a bit deeper. Holding over the support box I've drawn is key, and that box will likely move higher based on the end of wave (iii). (It's a 38.2 - 50% retrace of wave (iii).)
nick.holland78 nick.holland78
Unclear whether wave (iii) is complete, or whether this is the completion of wave i where (iii)-(iv) of i were small compared to (ii). I don't see negative divergence forming yet, so quite possible wave (iii) is still underway in which case I'll keep moving it higher on this time frame...
nick.holland78 nick.holland78
I should state "where wave (iv) was small compared to wave (ii)"...
Finallly, a reaction off support. I'm leaning more towards the green count but the difference in immaterial until this impulse plays out. Has a much more profound impact on later developments.
Testing the bottom of my old support box. Love to see an impulsive bounce form tomorrow...
Support hasn't changed. Price hovered over the target region after dropping earlier in the day. Divergences set up on short time frames.
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