4xForecaster

Will $XAG Shine On The Back Of A Rusting $XAU? | $GLD $SLV

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
Traders,

I just posted a chart illustrating the persistent increase in $XAUUSD strength relative to $XAGUSD (See original chart and analysis here:
Update: $XAU vs $XAG Keeps Rising | $GLD $SLV $Gold #Silver $USD
, as well as subsequent comments here:
$XAU vs $XAG Remains Bullish | #Gold #Silver $GLD #SILV
).


$XAUUSD vs. $XAGUSD:

This strengthening of Gold             relative to Silver             might appear counter-intuitive, considering that the yellow metal has been under pressure recently, yielding to this BEARISH analysis, where it is expected to continue a downward course on a pure technical basis - See analysis and forecasting here:
Potential Geometric Reversal At Low Target
.


$XAUUSD ON ITS OWN:

Looking at $XAUUSD alone, the technical landscape calls for a high-probability rally at the H4 scale. While this is a new chart without any prior target, I won't take credit for defining the current (YELLOW) level as a high-probability target, since it already occurred. However, I can say with some confidence that any protracted downward pressure will require a relief rallying to levels capped by the Fibonacci values depicted in the chart, with green, yellow and red representing a decreasing range of probability that price would attain these values. So, expect a higher probability of reversal to 19.754 (representing a minor Fibonacci value (1.000 - 0.786 = 0.214).

The other two values (20.308 at 38.2% and 20.653 at 61.8% retracements are self-explanatory, being significant Fib levels, widely accepted across financial markets).


PATTERN ANALYSIS:

The dominant pattern at this point remains arguable. A Bullish Bat comes to sight, as well as a potential Bullish Alternate Bat. However, their respective Point-B lacks the depth at 20.653.

Conversely, a Shark could win our consideration here, on the basis of the X-A-B conditions met at the apex of the pattern (i.e.: AB < 1.618), while a Zero-X 1.131 extension would fit the predictive model that defined TG-Lo = 18.435 today.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

As just defined, model just define an extremely LOW probability of reaching TG-Lo = 18.435 , but if it did so, this level would act as a strong reversal springboard. A colored arrow of fading quality is used to reflect the fading probability of this bearish scenario.


OVERALL: An abysmal target would support prior analysis of $XAUUSD vs. $XAGUSD rising. While price consolidates at current implied target, I will leave the directional indicator as "Neutral" until a direction pronounces itself.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


--------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
-------------
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
RELATED IDEAS - Prior Predictive Analyses/Forecasts:

1 - Update: $XAU vs $XAG Keeps Rising - (5 mos ago):
Update: $XAU vs $XAG Keeps Rising | $GLD $SLV $Gold #Silver $USD

Update: $XAU vs $XAG Keeps Rising | $GLD $SLV $Gold #Silver $USD



2 - $XAU vs $XAG Remains Bullish - (3 mos ago):
$XAU vs $XAG Remains Bullish | #Gold #Silver $GLD #SILV

$XAU vs $XAG Remains Bullish | #Gold #Silver $GLD #SILV



3 - Potential Support At TL And Reversal @21.724 - (1 mo ago):
Potential Support At TL And Reversal @21.724 | $XAG $SLV #Silver

Potential Support At TL And Reversal @21.724 | $XAG $SLV #Silver



- David Alcindor
Reply
23 AUG 2014 - Elliott Wave patterning:


snapshot



Traders,

The chart depicts a probable interim rally that could propel price above the trendline under which the entire price descent subdued itself (see ghosted trendline from top of chart across downward).

However, the dominant trend remains in the hands of bears, which may become intuitively obvious looking at it from a much wider timeframe perspective, as per this following WEEKLY chart - Although the model loses sensitivity (i.e.: in its ability to precisely define a target), its directional ability remains intact. In this WEEKLY chart, the directional indication remains BEARISH all the way to the vicinity of 10.730:


snapshot



I will focus the on-going analysis based on the H4 timeframe, at the prompting of traders interested in the metal. But for the time being, I will return back to Forex pastures - Feel free to interject now and then,

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
LOL :D I thought thats bitcoin ! looks almost the same.... wow nice corelation, nice chart
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO MagnusTradingGroup
2 years ago
Reply
25 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter (yesterday):
--------------------
$XAGUSD holding as per forecast; Shallow reversal remains probable:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $XAG $SLV $XAU $GLD $USD
-------------------


snapshot



UPDATED IMAGE - 25 AUG 2014:
snapshot



Traders,

Overall,

Silver (i.e.: $XAUUSD) remains concentrated at the first would-be forecast (YELLOW) level. As indicated by the arrows, a geometric reactive retracement could open (i.e.: upon completion of a diagonal triangle completion occurring at the end from 19 AUG to now), thus sending price to the prescribed levels (in dollar correlations to Fib).

However, on a least probable basis, a protracted consolidation could push price to abysmal levels (in RED) - A much less probable proposition for now.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
QUICK NOTE: Revealing the occult market geometries I use in my trading plan:

I have just finished writing an explanation of the methodology I use in my trading. Sort of a game theory application in which I define the application of Fibonacci projections for risk management to my trading. Very simple and approachable.

Here is the link:

https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO

Hope this shed more light on how I do things - Caveat here is that what I am revealing leaves out details of the predictive/forecasting mode. However, you will see how irrelevant it becomes once you concentrate on the geometric information revealed to your mind's eyes, using the Hennessy system as an overlay.

Hope you enjoy it. Feel free to contact me with any question, or share if you find the information valuable - Credit given to the author is courteous and always appreciated.

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Here is a visual example of my methodology - A very approachable and user-friendly composite of a simple A-B-C wave count relative to trendline breaks, counted forward towards a predefine Fib level from a larger timeframe - Easy enough?


EXAMPLE OF DAVID ALCINDOR'S HYBRID USE OF BASIC GEOMETRY, HENNESSY COUNT AND FIBONACCI LEVELS:
snapshot




Let me know if I need to clarify. Feel free to pass along if you like it. Here too, credit to author is the cool thing to do - Much appreciated.

David Alcindor
Reply
27 AUG 2014 - Update:


snapshot



* * * Please, note that the 0.382 level was erroneously defined at the 0.500 position - The chart reflects this correction * * *


Price has surged from defined support (YELLOW level) and retraced in a manner reminiscent of an Elliott Wave first motion. If price rally, the higher low would correspond to a Wave-2 completion and price would thus march steadily toward one of above Fib-correlated structural levels.


David Alcindor
Reply
28 AUG 2014 - Update: First Fibonacci Target Hit:

From Twitter:
--------------------------
$XAGUSD hit target @ 19.754; Opens to higher Fibonacci levels:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $XAG $SLV $XAU $GLD $USD #forex
-------------------------


snapshot



Traders,

As per forecast (blue arrow), bulls regained grazing territories to loftier levels. This opens the pasture to higher Fib-defined grounds.

I have not applied any particular wave count here, as it seems that the recent interest in the alternate wave counts has kept me busy and away from other charts. I will return to this chart with clearly count in the days day or so.

Thank you.

David Alcindor
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Where do u see it going now? Your work is beautiful.
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Will silver bounce befor further decline?
Reply
mjs
2 years ago
hell of a call on XAG
+1 Reply
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