Chronicles of Stress, Iran and Oil,Stock Market and the Fed

Everyone on this planet seems to know about the current situation around Ukraine and Russia, so we will not retell the latest news and events. We only note that there is always a chance to stop the escalation. However, from the position of game theory in the current situation, it is more profitable to be a pessimist, because you will either be right or gladly wrong.

But back to market realities. We have already written more than once that the main reference points are oil and gold. So yesterday, both assets updated local highs. And oil has generally updated its highs since 2014. Which means that we are still at the stage of deterioration. Recall that oil and gold prices have inflated mainly due to the expectation of a war, and its absence is a reason for a serious price correction.

Moreover, a serious reason for sales may soon appear on the oil market: negotiations with Iran seem to be moving towards a happy ending. And this, in turn, means an increase in supply in the oil market.

The stock market continues to be under pressure. And his future looks very bleak. Even if we are all lucky, and the topic of war is, if not closed, then postponed, which will formally be a reason for rising prices in the US stock market, the attention of the markets will immediately switch to the March meeting of the Fed and optimism will quickly give way to despondency. In general, selling in the US stock market has been and remains the basic trading idea for us.