chartwatchers
Short

Silver - Late faller (Short term trade idea)

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
4544 61 69
Silver             is not falling with gold             right now. I think gold             will have at least one more day to drop.
It could be low risk trade to sell silver             now with a stop above 20.7.
We might get a 1 $ drop in the night or tomorrow.

Target price is at the bottom of the bull flag : 19$

I'm trading this one on my account.
Comment: This idea is valid for 24-48 hours maximum.
If gold continues its decline tomorrow and silver is just lagging we have to forget about it.
If gold pops tomorrow and gold's decline starts to stretch for a week we might hold this short till Friday maybe Monday.
I will post here if this trade is closed
Comment: Silver not poping with gold...
It has a date with the bottom of the bull flag at 19$ in the following days....
snapshot
Comment: Still holding the silver short.
As gold is moving down into the DCL silver will follow to the bottom of the flag.
It will be a very fast move. It will fall 1$ in 5-6 hours.
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: Get ready guys,
I think the drop starting here also.
It could be very fast: 4-5 hours of strong decline.
Comment: Now I would like to see some real pain here also.
Silver drop is very fast. If it starts it can print a 1$ drop in 3-4 hours.
Comment: Ready?
Comment: Thus were born.
Ok then steady.
Comment: DROP!
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: The bottom of the flag is at 18.50. But I will take profit between 19.10-19.30
Comment: We have started to move to the bottom of the flag.
snapshot
Comment: Silver cannot break away from the upper trendline.
I'm still holding this short and I will take profit immediately as price tags 19.2$.
This kind of trendline-crawling could be bullish after 2-3 more days.
snapshot
Comment: We might be in a triangle / pennant ...
If it's a triangle it can break down or up.
If we are not breaking down in 2-3 days I'm going to close the position
as I don't want to be get caught in a pennant which breaks to the upside with a 5$ rally to 26$...
So I would like to see a break of today's low very soon.(tomorrow or the day after tomorrow)
snapshot
Comment: One could take profit on half of the position.
I think tomorrow we will continue the decline but always good to close some profit.
Comment: Closed half of the position at 19.271$
Got SLV August put options. )))
+2 Reply
Interesting trade Arpi.. How do you currently feel about your GDXJ short?
Reply
I feel that smartmoney used up Friday and Mondey to sell their shares into the breakout....
I think we should tag the 50 EMA and price wouldn't be so stretched from the 200 EMA.
A pullback to 41$ would be healthy...
Reply
Nightstar chartwatchers
Check out the volume on this bad boy!

snapshot
Reply
OMG.
I couldn't check that....
I will post a gold chart in a few minutes.
This falling in gold is too powerful. If we have 2-3 days like this we are done with the decline.
Reply
http://invst.ly/21e8u Why do I get different volume on daily chart
Reply
Nightstar investment6300
Perhaps a discrepancy...
Reply
Looking for ag to fall back to the 20day ema.
Reply
Hey: Interesting fact about silver.
Silver used in industrial materials.

so when gold up and industries up then bullish.
when gold down and industries up (earning season) then cancel each other
when gold down and industries down then collapse faster than gold
Reply
should we short when it touches the top? or do we just hold our original position?
Reply
Silver is in a very strong uptrend, with what looks like consolidation at current levels for a further move upwards. I would be careful trying to short it....just my two bits of watching it for the last 2 years :)
+1 Reply
Marvin mashru
Or you know it so well why don't you post some chatta?
Reply
Marvin Marvin
*Charts
Reply
Chartwatchers I have a bit of a different idea about silver I am looking for it to a least break the pivot high around $21.
Silver one more up!
+2 Reply
I expect a false breakout with the UK interest rate decision, followed by DCL.
Reply
traderzaius traderzaius
The daily cycle is a little long in the tooth by now.
Reply
Keeping an eye on the 10MA and Parabolic SAR on the daily chart
snapshot
Reply
JesseL JesseL
I generally place my trades right before the Parabolic SAR flips. Now is a good time for shorting XAGUSD, and holding it up to FOMC meeting before I exit.
Reply
Hello chartwatchers , do you see a small recovery within the next 2-3 hours and then a bigger falling below 20 until end of day and even further down until end of week?
Thanks
Reply
What level you expect to buy silver for long position?
Reply
Arpi -- Have you considered the possibility of this bullish scenario?

snapshot
+1 Reply
Sorry I just checked it now.
It's interesting. Could be a triangle...
Reply
Nightstar chartwatchers
Someone mentioned that we could be looking at a 'Coil'..? Those usually break one way and then reverse..! A real roller coaster drive, Lol!
Reply
Chartwathers, you mentioned that this idea is valid for 24-48 hours maximum. Do you hold your shot position until Monday ?
+1 Reply
time for bull panic down?
Reply
Time for a bull humble pie.
+1 Reply
Is there a good inverse ETF for silver? I found ZSL, but not very liquid.
Reply
YOu could short SLV or USLV for 1-2 days with a tight stop. If it doesn'T fall till Monday night.
It's bullet proof !
Reply
dmz chartwatchers
Nice, short USLV @ 26.66 with stop at 27.40.
Reply
dmz chartwatchers
Heading in the right direction, looking forward to next week. You're awesome! :)
Reply
DSLV ((inverse) or USLV it leverage x 3
Reply
dmz investment6300
short on USLV, but I am very small sized right now. If we do crack down, I'll add more.
Reply
Oh yeah. I am ready. Need to have a nice mood for the weekend of camping :).
Reply
I'm ready since 20.3xx, looking good too!
Reply
I have been ready since Wednesday, but stubborn Silver just wont budge. lol )))
+1 Reply
Marvin marketpundit
It sure won't. Every time I get into profit it lasts aboy 10 mins before I'm in minus again.
+1 Reply
With such a fast fall, do you believe it will bounce back up quickly too or will we have a chance to close without setting TP?
Reply
Trendhopper AlphaDreams
Both Silver & Gold are tracking sideways......we need some bullish talk from the Fed/Yellen for it to break down...too many safe haven punters out there propping prices up....Silver could keep going sideways like this for days/weeks, turning from a trending to a ranging commodity...
Reply
Don't get me wrong folks.. I love a good short but I think the best time to short is at the end of an intermediate cycle, not during. This is a Bull Market.. Gold and Silver continues to gain in popularity making it very hard for anyone to make money on the short side, even for the seasoned professional.
Reply
This idea still valid? i entered short at 20.100
Reply
http://www.bigtrends.com/education/goldsilver-ratio-continues-heading-downwards-in-2016/
Here is a interesting point about the correlation of silver and gold, you might want to read when silver follow gold.
Reply
that's interesting! thanks for sharing
Reply
investment6300 PRO DavidMarcy_TradeHuntFx
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article55914.html
This is very interesting info for long term bull investors. This relate to the change in the correlation of gold to other instruments of past few years considering the last 70 years. This gives a clear indication that gold in breaking links over resent years seen over last 70 years. We are going into a new era in acceleration where some will make a lot..and other will cry. Deflation is a new era in disguise....changing the outlook of investment with new correlations. Gold longterm bears might just be converted ..interesting stuff
Reply
What can be a TP now, about 19 $?
Reply
I set it to 19.10-19.20-19.30
Reply
RogerS PRO chartwatchers
And then Longs or too soon ?
Reply
No we wait. I want to see FOMC before going long.
If they raise - I think they will - gold/silver will tank more.
Reply
I have a stop loss at 20.50..
Reply
Would it still be good to enter a short position?
Reply
At around 20$ could be a good enter for a short.
Reply
I would wait for a retest of trendline Support turned Resistance. But keep a short leash on this puppy...

snapshot
Reply
Symone Nightstar
Thanks :)
Reply
KhunHunSein Nightstar
a little up and then down ?
Reply
Nightstar KhunHunSein
Hopefully :) Markets are full of surprises. Just follow Chartwatchers -- he's got his finger on the pulse!
+1 Reply
last chance to down ?
Reply
How long you have held you shorts? You plan to close till the end of the week or earlier?
Reply
looks like we have broken out of the triangle to the downside.....finally!!
Reply
SLV put option position closed: +13%

Apri rocks once again! )))
Reply

You think it we will continue the decline to 19$? or we just have bounced and should be safer to close short ?
Reply
Any comment on Silver for this moment?
Reply
I found it very visible on SLV weekly chart for longer term projection. Take a look:
snapshot
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
Indonesia
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out