Looking at the H4 chart right now, I no longer see a strong bullish silver market — it looks much more like a classic blow-off top after an extreme phase of market euphoria. In just a few sessions, XAGUSD has collapsed from nearly 89 USD down toward the 75 USD area, almost completely erasing the gains from the previous breakout move.
What makes this decline more concerning is the way it’s happening. This is not a slow technical correction — it’s continuous liquidation. Every recovery attempt is being sold aggressively, which suggests that larger players are prioritizing exiting positions rather than buying the dip.
The 75 USD zone is extremely important here. It’s not only a technical support area but also a major psychological level. If the market breaks decisively below this zone, silver could enter a deeper panic-selling phase toward 72 – 70 USD.
Right now, multiple macro factors are pressuring the market at the same time. A stronger US dollar following hotter-than-expected inflation data is making it difficult for the Fed to pivot toward rate cuts, while elevated Treasury yields continue pulling capital away from precious metals and back into yield-generating assets.
Beyond macroeconomics, I also think part of this collapse comes from how aggressively silver rallied before. When retail traders started heavily FOMO-buying near the 85 – 88 USD highs, that was likely the moment larger institutions quietly began taking profits.
The most negative signal for me isn’t simply the sharp drop itself — it’s how weak the rebounds have become. There’s almost no meaningful buying strength defending price anymore. That tells me market psychology may already be shifting from “buy the dip” into “sell the rally.”
At this stage, I still don’t see a confirmed bottom for silver. For the market to stabilize again, XAGUSD at minimum needs to stop creating new lower lows and fully absorb the heavy supply pressure that has dominated recent sessions.
What makes this decline more concerning is the way it’s happening. This is not a slow technical correction — it’s continuous liquidation. Every recovery attempt is being sold aggressively, which suggests that larger players are prioritizing exiting positions rather than buying the dip.
The 75 USD zone is extremely important here. It’s not only a technical support area but also a major psychological level. If the market breaks decisively below this zone, silver could enter a deeper panic-selling phase toward 72 – 70 USD.
Right now, multiple macro factors are pressuring the market at the same time. A stronger US dollar following hotter-than-expected inflation data is making it difficult for the Fed to pivot toward rate cuts, while elevated Treasury yields continue pulling capital away from precious metals and back into yield-generating assets.
Beyond macroeconomics, I also think part of this collapse comes from how aggressively silver rallied before. When retail traders started heavily FOMO-buying near the 85 – 88 USD highs, that was likely the moment larger institutions quietly began taking profits.
The most negative signal for me isn’t simply the sharp drop itself — it’s how weak the rebounds have become. There’s almost no meaningful buying strength defending price anymore. That tells me market psychology may already be shifting from “buy the dip” into “sell the rally.”
At this stage, I still don’t see a confirmed bottom for silver. For the market to stabilize again, XAGUSD at minimum needs to stop creating new lower lows and fully absorb the heavy supply pressure that has dominated recent sessions.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.