Silver is camped on top of the 78.6% retracement level -- this level is rooted within the fibonacci sequence and is considered the retracement of last resort.
The up trend from March breaks down as a double zigzag in Elliott Wave terms, this is a corrective structure implying that the whole trend is likely to be retraced at some point in the future.
I prefer break out trades in these scenarios...let the market tell you when it is ready to move in the direction you think it will. In the break out scenario, the stop loss would go just above the swing high. If silver bumps higher over the next couple days then the stop would go above that high if the breakdown would occur.
If interested in more Elliott wave analysis, let me know.
No chance of this happening. This is not an initial ABC like you have done here. Its a 12345 with an overall ABC. This will ultimately go to 18-18.5 then consolidate then 20+.
- zSplit
b_goleman
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@zSplit, I share your view. A pull back is highly unlikely. Further what you've stated a close on the monthly above 20.8 will likely see a move to 26.8 before consolidating again.
PaulDeep19131
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@b_goleman, I agree. The bottoms for Gold and Silver are long over. People are just being unrealistically hopeful to try to get a better buying price thats never going to happen. The strength in mining stocks clearly supports that a massive breakout is not only building, but not too far away for Gold and Silver alike.
Aluicious
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@zSplit, same, I only got half my miners in the low 20's (GDX) and I've been trying to add on pullbacks, but there just aren't any. I expect a new ATH for gold without any serious pulling back ($100 or more). Silver is at risk of a pullback due to heavier industrial use, but it will happen if there is a risk-off move in equities, not because of weakness in silver itself.
JWagnerFXTrader
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Hi @zSplit - would you mind posting a chart of what you are suggesting? BTW, I respect your (and everyone else's) opinion. Be careful about talking in absolutes though (ie-no chance of this happening).
The counts are probabilistic and prone to human error so the market could surprise and do the opposite as to what our analysis expects. That is why to trade this, I like break out trades. That is to say a break down below $15.75 will be enough to trigger the top in place. Then, if the market powers higher, we were saved from a losing trade as the market didn't reach our point of break down.
Cheers,
J
ABFX6
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@JWagnerFXTrader - Price action in last few days has changed your view? anything new that you see? keen to know your view here.
ABFX6
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@JWagnerFXTrader - Hey JW! big admirer of you from Daily FX days. I learnt EW from your webinars and articles.So with respect, on your view on this silver now, I would like to share this following view with you on this chart.
This is a monthly chart. This chart becomes extremely important at this time due to the fractal nature of this EW. Larger degree Trend may override the small degree. My humble view. I see it it as a larger degree WXY correction and in the lower degree, it may be forming another X wave and then it will terminate at Z with larger degree Y.
Again, I am still learning so not sure if this is perfect!. Let me know..
- zSplit