Note: silver was #004, and gold #005 (I've been mislabeling gold as #005) JUNE 30
JUNE 27
JUNE 26
JUNE 21
AND HERE IS LONG TERM CHART SINCE 1940s: WAVE A - INCOMPLETE, RECESSIONS FROM 13800 DAYS TO 109 YEARS WAVE B - ROUGHLY 13800 DAYS WAVE C - ROUGHLY 6900 DAYS WAVE D - ROUGHLY 3450 DAYS WAVE E- ROUGHLY 1725 DAYS
AND HERE IS ZOOM IN LAST 15 YEARS: WAVE F - 860 DAYS
AND ZOOM OCT 2018 TO CURRENT DAY: WAVE G - 430 DAYS WAVE H - 215 DAYS NOTE>> F projected outcome based on A-B-C-D-E (If history means anything, F does not have a choice).
AND ZOOM INTO JULY 2020 TO NOW: This is essentially a brief reason for why silver is hitting 40+ by 9/5.
AND HERE IS 3 HOUR BARS, THIS WILL BE THE BASIS FOR PART 5 AND PART 6 FOR SILVER. WAVE I - 108 DAYS WAVE J - 54 days WAVE K - 27 days (not labeled bc it's too small, but in this chart it is RED).
Other notes: 1. I will post part 5 around 7/25 prior to FOMC. 2. Until then use part 1 (link near top) for general price action. 3. Expectations are a move for 27.5 prior to FOMC and back down to 26.25 by 7/23-24
Comment
⋅
TYPO!! ON CHART, IT SHOULD SAY: "THIS IS WHAT PARTS 5 AND 6 WILL LOOK LIKE."
I meant to post part 5 but this is an important one that I don't want to rush. We are in a critical area. If you've been following the 50:1/100:1 stats, we are now targetting 8/27 SLV 24.5, 25 or 25.5 calls. When I wrote this last, I forgot that SLV is $2 less than spot. See you, space cowboys.
Comment
⋅
Last note: As it stands right now, first entry will by 7/24-25. It will be 1 of 2 types: 1) 1 entry on 1 day. 2) Divide $ by 12 and make 12 different entries trading day prior to 8/6. Will add details in part 5.
Comment
⋅
TYPO HEADER TYPO REGRESSIONS, NOT RECESSIONS
Comment
⋅
TYPO "So under 39 is an underdog vs over for 9/5/21"
Thanks for the updates! So you're not expecting the FOMC mtg (7/28) to be trigger for yet another big decline? Also - any thoughts yet on what happens with silver price after the $40-ish target is met? maybe into 2022-2023?
Binary_Forecasting_Service
⋅
@ralphkaz, No, the low should be prior to FOMC bc regressions do not show enough time for the low to happen afterwards with the exception of extreme 2 way volatility. For example, a spike down followed by a stronger spike back up. This is always possible, but only tend to occur at MAJOR trend changes. The coming low, in the scope of the coming bull market, is really not a major trend change (like march 2020). $40 is September, I expect $50-$65 in December and $75 in January 2022 (while gold should be at 2350-2400 by Jan 2022). AS OF RIGHT NOW, I see gold at 2800 by 5/31/2022, meaning higher targets for silver by then as well. But silver is on a MUCH STEEPER curve upwards, so it's silly to forecast what it should be then w/o getting to $75 first.
ralphkaz
⋅
@MQP, looks like we're getting the dip right now that you predicted; still think 1st entry in a week or two? any changes to your model?
Binary_Forecasting_Service
⋅
@ralphkaz, No changes. I will point out that what I described in the answer right above this (involving 2-way vol) is happening in First Majestic right now (AG). I really have a hard time seeing AG under 13 for a long time. The curves right now say AG should be at 25 at 09/07, my instincts say 31-32, but that's kind of silly to say while AG is under 13. Anyways, we will know definitively by 7/25, 7/28 if late.
ralphkaz
⋅
@MQP, The metals and especially the miners seem so oversold right now... this should provide the fuel for the rise you're predicting will start in a few weeks. Do you think we've reached the lows or more to go on downside this & next week?
Binary_Forecasting_Service
⋅
@ralphkaz, It's getting kind of ridiculous. The regression changes is killing the my 50:1 silver trade as of right now. Gold regressions have not changed. Silver now has a cap at $37.50 spot, maybe even lower at 35.xx for 09/07/21. With that said, the volatility window between 09/07 and 12/04 for silver has reduced considerably to a "sideways to up" move instead of "massive retrace after massive spike". Entries window for gold silver remain the same. 7/23 (this friday) to 8/6) (two fridays later).
ralphkaz
⋅
@MQP, OK, i guess settling for a 20x of so on an options play won't be too bad! :-) Are you still planning on releasing your indicator this friday as well?
Binary_Forecasting_Service
⋅
I want to, some legal issues need clearing up.
ralphkaz
⋅
@MQP, Hope you're able to release the indicator - would love to play around with it on other stocks... So from your earlier comment seems you're saying this top around 2nd week of Sept will be about as high as it goes this year? $75 by Jan is off the table? could be that an overall stock market crash extends the timing for the metals to go up (assuming they will get dragged down with everything else for a while; at least temporarily)