4xForecaster
Long

$XAG vs. $USD Rests At Bullish Entrenchment; Eyes 17.564 | $SLV

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
1866 29 22
a year ago
Friends,

Watch for potential rally into the 17.564/17.757 range per Geo's Off-Set Rule, as price defined a higher-low structure into the bullish entrenchment - See following chart:


snapshot


Look for commodity-sensitive currencies , such as $AUD, $NZD, $CNH and correlated leaders such as $XAU, $XPT charts (posted earlier this week) for supportive hints in terms of similar directional biases.

Background geometry at play is the Geo             , as implied by above Off-Set Rule, whereas the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains quiet at this time.


OVERALL:

Bullish bias to 17.564/17.757 range as Geo=based targets.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
@4xforecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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5 months ago
Comment: 30 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price finally rose to the 17.564/17.757 range, we are now looking at a potential reversal, given the following upper and lower risks - The upper value represents the most proximal value anticipated to hit first, whereas the lower value represents the target at reversal:

snapshot


Invalidation should occur with the development of a bullish impulse pushing price steadily higher. In which case, a new analysis to the upside would be required.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Dear master, may I know what is GEO? is there any article i can refer? TKS!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO tntsunrise
a year ago
Hello @tntsunrise - No master here. Learning from market as much as anyone else.

Geo is a refinement of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave pattern (see his site: www.WolfeWave.com). Contrary to the information he had share on the introductory site (I have not received any lesson from him, so my knowledge of the Wolfe Wave is limited to what is shared there), I discovered discreet geoemetric conditions that formed the basis of rules, not only for the construction of the Geo, but also for very-high probability targets generated from geometric extensions from the Geo.

According to Mr. Bill Wolfe's pattern, a 5-point completion of his pattern leads to a price reaching the 1-4 Line. In contrast, geometric rules will determine much higher probabilities in terms of geometric construction (for instance, an ectopic Point-5 is more likely to occur as 5' ("five-prime") than a reversal of price at Point-5, which is defined along the 1-3 Line. Conversely, a 5'' ("five-second").

Derived from these frequency rules (whereby 5' > 5 > 5''), it ensues that the HIGHEST probability of retracement would occur towards the following probability levels:

1 - Price level corresponding to Point-4 offers the HIGHEST probability target, so long as price retraces from Point-5'
2 - The 1-4 Line offers the highest probability of target, so long as price retraces from Point-5 (this is the Wolfe Wave rule)
3 - Price level corresponding to Point-3 offers the HIGHEST probability target, so long as price retraces from Point-5''

Above is what I have defined as the "Geo's Off-Set Rule", whereby a geometric compensation (or offset) is taken into consideration when contemplating the highest-probability target if and once price retraces from these points.

There is no article on this - Thank you for staying curious.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Sokun
a year ago
what are the possiblitys if it goes lower?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
a year ago
Yes, I expect a possible - albeit measured - decline, but bears are thin and weak.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
10 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$XAGUSD surged at week's open since signal; Broke discreet internal resistance levels; Bulls in control:

snapshot


$SLV $XAG
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
12 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/linkedIn:
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$XAGUSD continues to adhere to its prescribed forecast since signal; Eyes 17.564 per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

snapshot


$XAG $SLV
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
14 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$XAG finds support on prior resistance line; Bulls gain strength:

snapshot


$XAGUSD $SLV #silver #gold $GLD $XAU $USD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
a year ago
Maybee the volume from 7/20 stopped it out ? Down to 12 or 10? Any new comment please?
Thank you so much for your work!
Reply
26 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From twitter/LinkedIn:
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$XAG carves out lower-low; Finds support along transposed 2-4 Line from 1; Defines 5''; Lowest possible for Geo

snapshot

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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thanks for live update of your charts; Appreciate your time and share of knowledge. Entered XAG long at 14.10;
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
a year ago
Spot on.
Reply
27 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$XAGUSD faces most immediate hurdle: Point-3 from 5'', per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

snapshot


$XAG #silver $SLV #gold $XAU $AUD
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
JoeUrgo 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thanks for all of your contributions to the community David, amazing work. Can you shed some insight into at what point this trade would be considered invalidated after snapping back from the 5" line? Would a revisit/breach of the 5" cause you to exit the position, or would you would be looking to exit somewhere sooner?
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO JoeUrgo
a year ago
Hello @5thStreetResearch - First, thank you for your kind comments. This is work I do while at work, vacation or in my head as geometric lullabies. It's also nice to earn from it by trading.

Second, here is an aggregate projection of the simplest 1.414 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions ("FE") I refer traders to:


snapshot



In sum, every structure depends on a 1-2-3 pace, which is what I use to define most of the zero-line of the Fib matrix, whereas the 100-line is typically set at a structural level (i.e.: relative highest-high/low in a swing move) ... The 1-2-3 pace is simply a reminder for me to not consider the first or second higher-high or higher-low at a tip-top or bottom-tip, but to consider only the third position ... Simply see where some of the zero-line of the Fib matrx is chosen, and things should make sense.

Next, I look at TWO specific levels, which in my years of training have seem to represent points of reversal from which counter-move have occurred.

First, there is the 1.414 - A reversal at a 1.414-FE level is typically associated with an aggressive counter-trend, since the institutions acted counter-intuitively to the retailer's expectation, whose Pavlovian training is to set their mind's eyes to the 1.618 and 0.618 levels. Hence, Forex houses can capture a few stop-losses right below the 100-Fib line, and go against the "more learned' trader's expectation by standing them up at the 1.618 rendez-vous.

Second, there is the 1.618 - Aside from the inculcation that core and primary Fib numbers 0.618 and 1.618 are "Golden", natural levels of organic growth from which a linear, coiling or bleb-like organism can still organize its life in terms of contractions (0.618-Fib) and expansions (1.618-FE), I also believe that institutional predators who stand at the top of that natural food chain would do well to preempt any moves with these numbers in mind. In a way, 0.618/1.618 are the paces at which retail traders (i.e.: prey) are taught to walk in unison so as to guarantee that some or most will maintain that gait up to the slaughter house, by walking right into that range (i.e.: predator's field) ... This may be a bit too "paranoid" a view, but I have not come across any other large institutions that would teach otherwise.

In any case, you will see in the chart how 1.618-Fib relates to the precautionary 1.414.


Now, regarding the expected movement of this chart, I like to stay at the 4-hour level. This is a composite level made up, assumingly, of retail and institutional traders, the proportion of which is unknown to me, but assumed to favor the institutional houses. Hence, this blend allows me to submit the data into the Predictive/Forecasting Model using a reasonable sample of fear-based, reactionary players (retail) and mechanically-based actuary influencers ... It's the mechanism of the institutions which I have developed into the Model to recognize.

In this case, I expect that a lower-low remains a possibility, but that the underlying geometry (which stands separate and distinc from the "Model") remains capable to justify retracement levels via the Geo's Off-Set Rule, a simple expectation that the distortion in prices are compensated by distortions in targets. Hence, an adverse excursion at one level is met at its highest degree of probability with one and only one specific level of attainement once price reverses (e.g.: Point-5 reverses along the 1-4 Line, as would the Wolfe Wave expect; but 5-prime reverses to Point-4 level, and 5'' to Point-3 level).


Regarding the placement of a SL, I would look for the principle plots of a geometry (correlating each point with a volume spike, such as a stopping volume, for instance, could be an added visual aid), and use the 1.414/1.618-FE range as a tool to define whether to prudently enter a trade (1.414-FE makes for a great level, considering the proximity of a 1.618 as a SL level), or whether to let price break above a former structure high/low as price was carving now lows/highs, respectively. The latter would represent the most conservative entry strategy.

I expanded on your question, so as to explain my view and reasoning on retail vs. institutional assumptions, as well as the 1.414 vs. 1.618 reasoning, and my choice to have calibrated a Predictive/Forecasting Model around a "synthetic" timeframe, but I hope I was able to preempt other questions a simple answer might have raised.

Best,


David
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
I am not aware of the level of proficiency traders have as they follow my analyses, but I would encourage anyone to read, learn and expand their knowledge from free lessons offers at www.ElliottWave.com - They are the only real authority I can name, and the only free instructors (Robert Prechter and his hand-picked professionals) whom a serious trader should consider to base any solid technical knowledge of the market. At the risk of insulting my own person and any other professionals adept at Elliott Wave, they too had to turn to them before expounding on these analyses. Hence, I would trust no other but these professionals on that site who teach Elliott Wave Principles (EWP) with the same fervor and passion as I do about my own knowledge in occult geometries in the financial markets. Every body else is simply a follower, and I humbly count myself in that gladly submissive midst.

David
+5 Reply
JoeUrgo 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thanks again David, that explanation was extremely insightful. I will be sure to check out the resources they offer. Cheers!
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Nice one David, this and USDZAR look really good.
Reply
16 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


$XAGUSD breaks 1-3 Line from 5''; This will cause a significant resistance at Pt-3 Level, per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
17 SEP 2015 - Chart update:


Price remains committed to the upside, with a high-probability attainment of price level corresponding to Point-3 (Geo's Off-Set Rule #3) as expected. Going forward, the 1-3 Line is likely to act as a springboard for further advance, as shown:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
17 SEP 2015 - Tech-Note:

As you know by now, I would rather offer the highest-probability secenario, even if this means much smaller gains that ones that could be promised, but undelivered from lesser probability scenarios. In the context of this chart, the price level of Point-3 represents the highest -probability scenario, whereas any other advance would have to prove itself in deed.

The one provable deed I would like to see is a retracement from the first RED target (small red square along the lower border of the Point-3 range, defined as 15.274) in a corrective pattern in Elliott Wave terms, as it would represent a coiling pattern preparing for a larger-degree of impulse, as well as a validation of price along the 1-3 Line.

An EARLY INVALIDATION of this can be expected IF price retrenches from the Point-3 level to a level that exceeds the origin of the impulse bars (the three most recent bars are what constitute the impulse, with an origin that stems approximately from the 3-5' Line.

I hope I have kept this clear.


David
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Here, pink arrow points to that level which should NOT be exceeded, otherwise, the advance in this metal is invalidated as planned. That is, I would ignore any further advance expectation until another significant event occurs to the upside.


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
15 SEP 2015 - Chart Update: Hit Target


Just hit a minor structural target. Expecting some delay from this resistance. However, outlook remains bullish:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
02 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Price remains close to dashed forecast; A break above 15.414 may break bulls free to loftier target:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
05 OCT 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


$XAGUSD continues to move as forecast; Geo's Off-Set Rule #2 sets target at 17.5/17.7 range:

snapshot


$XAG $SLV #silver


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
09 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Price remains bullish. Per Geo's Offset rules, #2 is complete (highest probability attainment based on 5'' validation). Original target at price level of Point-4 is now a lower probability target ever since 5' was replaced by 5'' validation, as per the same rule. Still, price remains bullish:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
14 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


As price continues its ascent, it crossed and validated the once-resistance-now support level corresponding to the Geo's Off-Set Rule #3 level. Bullish forecast remains in force and intact, although the Geo's Off-Set Rule completed its highest probability target. What remains should be considered a lesser probability outcome:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
JoeUrgo 4xForecaster
a year ago
You've nailed this one thus far David, great work. Its fascinating to see the price remain seemingly tethered to the dashed line trajectory you outlined. Would you be so kind to take a look at a smaller timeframe such as the H1 or H4 level and share your thoughts on any key structural levels that are present?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO JoeUrgo
a year ago
Hello @JoeUrgo - Yes, price remains close to the dashed line for the most part - The line is speculative but relies on a probability pathway offered by the Predictive/Foecasting Model. This probability weakens with lower timeframes.
+2 Reply
2use
5 months ago
Thanx for the update, im following this idea
Reply
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