Silver and Gold: rally next week or next year

FX:XAGUSD   Silver / U.S. Dollar
You've been waiting for a rally for months.. and the market just stands still. Your long position opened at the bounce off the channel is still open but you have a growing desire to close it because the market just isn't moving. You think - it's never going to grow again. The market is dead. An eternal decline is ahead of us. Moments after you click "close" the market ignites an insane growth.

The night is coldest before the dawn. The bearish mood is peaking right before the rally.

Here's a wave labeling of Silver             - it's a bit different from Gold             as it seems to have one extra wave degree which was unfolding in a slightly different manner compared to Gold             .
Gold             didn't have a triangle in its wave structure while Silver             seems to have one.

Silver             declined much deeper than Gold             , but the bounce in % terms will also be larger. The margin requirements for Silver             are usually 2x of Gold             , but on the return-per-margin basis Silver             will still be more attractive.

I'm waiting for wave (X) to start next week which in my estimates is supposed to last until end December and is supposed to end at the same time the correction in DXY             completes. Once DXY             enters w5 rally, Gold             and Silver             won't be able to hold and will plunge again.

I'm not fully convinced that the advance will happen - but if it happens, it needs to start next week, bouncing off the correction developing on 1H charts. If the rally doesn't start in the next few days then the momentum is lost, all bets are off and we are into another wave of decline.
This is an alternate count, with an almost exact AB=CD relationship..

Agree, i've been waiting for this long time, the false breakout is just a confirmation and not invalidation. On 1H charts we have a nice impulse and correction, an ideal EW confirmation for an entry. Regards.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO FullTimeTrader
I think we're all on the same page.
Hope we're not 'herding' on this one, it does look promising.
FullTimeTrader IvanLabrie
The herd is outside TradingView haha, here we all are independent traders and not Wall Street analysts. The SPX500 crush was anticipated by many members here using different trading systems.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO FullTimeTrader
Yes, good point but still, it's worth considering :p
worth noted thanks... my tgt 12.22 keeping dollor in mind and global micro ,,china on down tumble..
Agreed, much more convinced with a silver rally than gold. Also more profitable, as a bonus.
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