Bullish signs for XAGUSD but has to clear confluence resistance

FX:XAGUSD   Silver / U.S. Dollar
305 5 3
Silver             price XAGUSD             displays bullish signs in the form of a 'selling-climax'-like price action near to 52 week. This could be exhaustion on the part of sellers and potential for a double bottom bullish reversal setup. There is however also a flag-like pattern that suggests continuation of the near term down trend that started in November last year. Therefore there is chance for price to go lower. For a price reversal to succeed in favour of bulls, price must penetrate the overhead confluence zone around 20.50-60 (blue horizontal line) decisively. A bull-trap at the same zone would be a signal for bears.
Seems like a last minute sell-off to fall under the 2013 tax year.
The expected pull back wasn't quite strong enough to get out higher
Sohtionghum RyNinDaCleM
Dear sir, I have read about this tax thing in the zerohedge forum. It is my impression that this is an American-centric practice. Please correct me if I am wrong. But looking at this chart by KoosJansen, I wonder why US-selling should have any impact at all. Again I may be wrong since I am a technical person and unfamiliar with tax practices elsewhere.
Sohtionghum Sohtionghum
I just like to clarify that I was being scatterbrained to post a link to a gold related chart while the discussion here is on XAGUSD. Please pardon me. However let me emphasise again that I am looking at technicals as well as not being familiar with tax-related buying and selling motives.
I agree! We have to wait and see of a DB being in or a further move down is in store. I'm looking for a stronger dollar here so.... for the moment I'm in the bull camp. BUT! Confirmation is everything!
Sohtionghum WallStScalper
Hi BM, I agree with you entirely that confirmation is everything. Hence price penetration must be decisive. It must not be one of those wash n rinse phenomenon that turns out to be a short signal instead. I am bullish.
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