Technician
Long

Is Silver Bottoming ? Eyeing 25.00

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
779 16 15
It looks like Silver             is basing, and could be in a bottoming process. The price of silver             failed to record new lows since July of 2013 major low, and despite the recent strong rebound in the U.S. jobs numbers, silver             failed to sell-off, that could be telling something new, and price might be discounting new positive developments for the metal.

Technically, the price has broken above its long term bearish trend line that started from April 2011 major high near 50.00, in my view the breakout above this trend line at-least hints for the continuation of this sideways bias, and probably a retest of 25.00 major resistance.

A rally in silver             will probably be accompanied by a rally in other metals such as gold             .

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Nice clean chart, good job. If i did it right there should be a chart pasted here with my comments as well.
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MRS Watanabe JamesPowell
2 years ago
you talk of supply, you mean paper supply, not real physical. When premiums in the wholesale market rise and we get that disconnect with the COMEX paper (false) supply again like on the last massive rally, then this gets interesting and it starts flying. For now we have low premiums but take a look at premiums at the Shanghai exchange, they are massive. China is the manufacturing base, USA lost its manufacturing remember. and in my opinion COMEX is a Western casino that has no useful price discovery function, like all casinos it exists to line the pockets of the owners running the game where the odds of winning are always stacked against the punters.
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this is a smaller chart of the weekly one i just posted.
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Technician TOP JamesPowell
2 years ago
James, thanks for your input, but to be honest i am not a fan of "history repeat it self" theory, i believe that every instance in time has its unique conditions. I am bullish on silver, gold, copper, and most metals.
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JamesPowell PRO Technician
2 years ago
wow, did what i said come out as history repeat itself theory? I meant to show that the supply has so far been overwhelming the demand in the bigger picture.
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MRS Watanabe JamesPowell
2 years ago
all that chart is saying is the short camp is defending $22, so if $22 breaches stops go off and next resistance is $25
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NF414 PRO
2 years ago
Again, good luck with that :)
Top in Silver seems to be set!
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MRS Watanabe NF414
2 years ago
NF414 the loner term trend is stronger weekly beats the daily.
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MRS Watanabe
2 years ago
Put up an MACD and note the buy / sell signals at the extremes, will make your analysis look more complete. I agree the bottom is in and that is a breakout. it just needs to get above $22 for some real fireworks. Look out for a failure to deliver at the COMEX, that will set silver flying again. Producers of electronics, solar panels, desalination equipment etc will push the price higher at the first signal that wholesale premiums start to rise. ALSO NB Open interest in COMEX Silver is going threw the roof, that means some big interests are taking on JPM and the short camp. Look out for the shorts failure to deliver silver at any future contract expiry (which can be settled in cash) that will signal a scramble for physical silver, as the end manufacturers depend on just in time deliveries, cannot see them risking a failure of silver supply deliveries.
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MRS Watanabe MRS Watanabe
2 years ago
snapshot
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JamesPowell PRO MRS Watanabe
2 years ago
While you may be very well right regarding the actual physical product you are also right about the casino part as well and most traders care less about the product itself. It's not the product itself where the small speculators make their money, it's the betting opportunities. See we don't care or concern ourselves whether it goes to zero or a grand. We just need it to move one way or the other.

So to me you can be right as rain about everything you say and it still don't matter and we still don't care. All we care about is the opportunities to bet on. It is that casino part that matters to most speculators. And it don't even matter to the casinos, they not buying the stuff either. All they care about is how many folks they can get to bet because that's how they get paid. We pay to play. They care less we win or loose long as we keep betting.
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MRS Watanabe JamesPowell
2 years ago
The idea is to read the direction of the trend in the market and minimize the risk by picking only the low risk entries., otherwise its gambling. Now the risks are stacking up on the short camp who are now the gamblers. Silver cannot go to zero, as it is consumed and there is very little of the real physical around, No new supply comes on line as there is little profit left for looking for it and mining it at these prices. This metal is essential in countless manufacturing processes. However what we have here is a concentrated short position in the hands of one bank. That is not going to get a bail out. Sometimes the fundamentals and the technical analysis start to align and this time its aligning to give a very bullish buy signal.
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JamesPowell PRO MRS Watanabe
2 years ago
Lord I really hope so dude. Won't that be way cool?
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JamesPowell PRO MRS Watanabe
2 years ago
at least you didn't call me a Pollock like i think the one guy did, lol. I do have a question. I'm not disputing your position i assure you. But if a bank is short silver why would they need a bail out if prices are at the bottom? Seems like if anyone knew the bottom it would be the bank, i mean after all they are the ones all us retailers are leaning against. All the bank has to do is buy to cover their position in the market, real or imaginary. Then as it would be the bank buying it would create demand, concentrated demand as you indicate which would be a self fulfilling prof icy. Making your prediction even more probable. But it would happen regardless of the actual availability of the physical silver. Which makes my point any way, that it don't matter to us little guys about the physical supply and demand. So long as there is supply and demand for contracts or options or certificates or what ever vehicle it is one is trading right?
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MRS Watanabe JamesPowell
2 years ago
because of the size of the derivative positions, a sharp move higher would probably wipe them out, or they would get margin calls, note margins have been reduced in the PMs it is to protect the over leveraged short camp that are shareholders and sit on the board of the CME. But you might find this interesting
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/07/16/insider-trading-financial-terrorism-comex/
and
https://www.butlerresearch.com/archive-free.asp
Reg no more bank bailouts,,, basically, now legally passed is the 'bail in' no longer 'bail out', which means the shareholders, depositors and all creditors do the bailing out in the event of bankruptcy, taking pennies on the dollars deposited/owed etc. Its written into law. The bank in question does not have the money nor sufficient assets to cover its derivative positions if they had to. They cannot get it lower and they are out of silver to keep it lower.
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JamesPowell PRO MRS Watanabe
2 years ago
well you are dilligent enough to figure all this out, that doesnt mean everyone else has. You may be the proverbial John the Baptist in the wilderness and no one listening to you. Thats no insult by the way. But still what you are talking about is basically fundamentals of the metal itself. Which is one thing but all the derivatives being traded in the name of silver are something else entirely. Right. So, despite of the fundamentals we still have to trade that chart because as long as the exchanges and banks can trade those then they will keep that going long after the metal is gone. LOL Am i right?

So you know, i was bullish on the silver chart but i think there is still down side on the gold chart. so based on that i took another look at the silver chart and i still believe it is at least possible there is some down side room on the silver chart.
i do hear what you are preaching though so you at least accomplished that. But as of the moment i have to trade bullish simply because of the chart, even though fundamentally i believe you to be correct.

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