ASX XAO All Ordinaries to start an uptrend in AUGUST

ASX:XAO dropped 39% from its high in Feb 2020 and has gained 15% in March 2020. With stimulus package announced earlier, Australian markets have rallied towards the month end.

A clear uptrend will not be established until we have a month (most likely AUGUST) that closes above XAO 5400 which is the red Resistance line shown on chart. I do not see ASX close under 4400 again.

Bar pattern in grey based on previous fractal / trend I can see develop in the next few months of volatility with ASX:XAO target of 6300 in March 2021

Blue vertical line in Oct 2021 is one of the fib time zones I will be watching for a likely pull back.

Comment:

@craigemm, I should have explained more when I said "Bar pattern in grey based on previous fractal"

My thought process -

1) I drew a number of pitchforks, fib levels on pivot highs and lows along with Support / Resistance levels of this Monthly chart from 2008 to now.

2) Then I looked at the fractals for the same period to see which is 'best fit'.

This bar pattern / price action candle structure I thought was better fit considering volatility, and lined up nicely with the next Quarter which falls in July.

If I kept all this on the chart it would have looked way to complicated !

Trade active:

For a moment there I thought we will continue the April uptrend in May to reach our 6300 target sooner. However with -5% today on 1st May, we have slowed down the Bull run. I still do not see ASX close under 4400 again. This chart has been fairly accurate so far.

Trade active:

#ASX XAO XJO has now broken past the resistance zone convincingly. Unless there is a major economic or political change in the status quo, we are still looking at our 6300 target and thats within within reach.

Trade active:

We have reached 6500 earlier than expected. If this fractal is still in play, we should see a double top and then drop back to 5500 in coming months.