XAU - Posts 21-month new highs following monthly upside break

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XAU @93.70 – bullish – Posts 21-month new highs following upside break thru 4.5-year down trendline

XAU rallied strongly from the 38.36 all-time low (January 2016) to post a new 21-month high at 95.36 (June 2016). The move was supported by the upside break through the 4.5-year falling trendline (September 2011/September 2012 lower highs), suggesting strength of the bullish momentum remains. While the 95.36 area is where the 200-week moving average currently locates, with the overbought technical readings, it is possible the gold             index could consolidate above the 77.99 support (May 2016 higher low). Further gains above 95.36 would signal continued momentum towards 106.01 (July 2014 monthly range high) and then 115.21 (August 2013 lower high, near 38.2% of the 232.72/38.36 entire 5-year fall (December 2010-January 2016)).
However, a return below the 77.99 area would suggest topping and extends the decline towards the 50-week moving average currently at 60.10.

Daily: bullish to neutral
Weekly: bullish
Monthly: bullish
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