Hey team, hope this aids as we trade gold together!
I thought I would briefly provide my interpretation of various indicators I use for trading. If you see things differently please advise, I welcome contrarian logic - sway me!
Macro
JP (Fed) continues QT - One would assume this would result in strengthening in the USD / DXY
It flies in the face of Austrian Economics but QE has not resulted in higher inflation - in fact the Fed has an inflation problem
If QE did not result in inflation perhaps QT will not result in a stronger greenback
Two additional rate hikes later this year would certainly result in a stronger dollar
Slowing growth globally (USA PMI/Brexit/China PMI/Australia slowdown) will result in other central banks seeking to purchase gold
TA
Moving Averages on Weekly - Clearly Bullish
MACD - Neutral / Stoch - Buy
RSI - Bullish
Volume - just came off heavy selling, the volume is not strong into the Friday rally
1 Month TF on Kagi makes you wonder if it will finally break out of this level of resistance (2002 till now)
Final thoughts: This sell off of Gold was very fast and way overdone - we can see here that it recently fell 2 Standard Deviations away from the 20 day mean!
The fact that fall happened so fast has me concerned that this buyback based off weak volume could reverse.
I am not trading Gold right now till we see it cross $1300. If it crosses $1304 I will immediately accumulate a large position, if the sell off continues I will continues to observe additional information prior to trading. There is a chance as well that we are in an Elliot Wave about to go through Corrective 4. I would chart scrape it, but putting in additional research on EW first!
Hey Final FYI: Long term (1yr) I am very bullish on Gold and still think we will see past $1400 this time next year.
Trade active
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Long at $1304
Trade closed: target reached
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1313.93 not bad. Time for some profit taking. Will look for reentry after additional TA this weekend.
Generally bullish on Gold like you on the whole for the future but - MAs are not supportive on the weekly on this one, price below falling 4 weekly MA - 50MA is also in a downtrend, 13 week ROC dropping, stochastics 10 period confirming drop, RSI has dropped below its own 12 period sma for the first time since 16th April - if history repeats that doesn't look good in the short-term, short-term for me being a few weeks couple of months rather than a few minutes...
ZenMode
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@marberisking, great observations as usual. More pain before more gain! Thanks for your insight! That 50MA is indeed clearly bearish.
UnknownUnicorn1300833
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@ZenMode, The weekly takes time to play out but generally over the next few years especially until 2024 bullion will be a good place to be, we'll see, good luck and good charting, best wishes
ZenMode
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@marberisking, Thanks, and I agree! Incredibly bullish long term.