FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
908 15 47
First of all I would like to thank for all the support you give me.
At the second place I'd like to congratulate for all the traders who were able to stay in position in this topping process.
Those who were selling short today or in the last 2 weeks were selling short position with the big banks and funds.
Smartmoney exactly knew what would be the FED minutes news. So they were holding the price in the red channel pulling up again and again and selling more and more gold             contracts to retail traders. They were making false breakouts , running the short's stops again and again...

Let's see the example.
You go long at the double bottom breakdown backtest 4th May. You set your stop at 1291 (SHORT1) and you get stopped out on the 6th of May. It's a big move so you go long because it looks price wants to break out. But it doesn't. Strong decline and you get stopped out on the 9th May.
OK. Now you wait a little bit because it seems the short is good. Gold             seems to be topping. You find a nice entry point for your SHORT 2 on the 11th May at 1278$. You catch the exact top. It's printing a nice double top on the 12th May. Perfect. You feel the big money.... Stopping out on the same day...
You wait one more day. 13th May . Lower high at 1275. You sell again (SHORT 3), starting with a beautiful big red candle. You think it is really starting to fall now. And what happens? You are not only stopping out but breaking out of the blue channel on the 16th May. You are a sophisticated trader. When breakout occurs you trade the breakout. So you go long at 1286 (LONG2). And price immediately reverses and goes back into the channel. You freak out and stop out the long position.
Now it really seems that gold             is short. It reversed back from the false breakout with strong volume . So you wait for the next day when price almost tagging the blue trendline . (May 17th) You go short (SHORT4) set your stop at the trendline and you get stopped out in the night.
So now it starting to look it can't fall. You read the news: Goldman is long, Soros is long. You decide to go all in at the next tag of the trendline (LONG3). And price breaking down. You are flat broke.

Gold's intermediate top and bottom is horrible, frustrating and killer. Smartmoney is doing everything to confuse you and stop you out. The only way to stay in a position if you set your stop at the highs. They are protecting that level very heavily because they don't want price to run away... Usually they have an important news - of which result they know already - where & when they want to be positioned in the good direction with the maximum position. But at the end they are making mistakes and we can catch them . :)
Like today....
great analysis, lots of people are doing charts on gold right now and the description on this chart is above and beyond! lets see if we can get some sort of a base around this level for a move up again! :)
I'm not in the camp for an upmove in the following 3-4 weeks.
+2 Reply
gokhan_270 lukelehepuu
what do you think @lukelehepuu go to up ?
I have to agree, it took me a few losses on the long side to finally side with you on this gold short and finally today made some of it back!!!! i've been with you on oil since 41, thank you for that.
Hi, Still holding short from your analysis early May, with no limit. SL @ 1295. The swings have been large I must say. I still have not gone live however! If I was live I wonder wether I would of been able to fund the losses showing at some stages. This obvious ly takes a lot of nerve and experience as you obviously have. It seems stop setting is a very important part of these trades to be successful. I have made other trades inside your one from early May and lost most and won some,as you pointed out in today's analysis. Just luck really. Is it a good idea to cash up a trade then go again at the same price. Ronnee
Thank you for your analysis. In your opinion what will be the next bounce for gold? I am trading DUST. Today I sold half of my position and plan to enter again when it pulls back.
chartwatchers PRO chasingziyou
There might not be too many pullbacks in DUST. Hold the core position for a few days.
nice chart, great analysis, opened sell 1272.25. do you have a lkelyhood of where this will TP out ?
I posted the levels
davgrad PRO chartwatchers
ok thank you, i found them. love your work, excellent.
Arpi, expected pullback on which level? Thanks dude
Around here at 1255-1256. we are heading to 50 EMA
Thank you for all the work you do - I love your analysis, there are very smart and very well written.
Thanks for your support ! :)
saint_athur rudykorinek
Intelligent analyst. I never follow anyone to analyse gold movement but arpi and jack change my perception to follow them :) both of them is perfect combo!
+1 Reply
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