YaKa

Gold - Big Picture Review

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
4369 73 55

Locally - Up to 1350 seems to be in the cards.

The last few months could be a succession of bear trap and bull trap (now under way).

Long Term - Gold             shall increase - It makes sens from a fundamental and a technical point of view.

However, correcting to circa 900 is really a realistic scenario that makes sense from a fibonaci and an elliott waves perspective.

The Long Term fundamental bullish scenario holds true here - No discussion but it was holding true for a while already and has failed.

Until 1370 is cleared decisively - the correction is still at play...

Conclusion:
- Long now until 1350.
- At 1350 - Consider investing some of the proceeds into managing a short.
- If 1350 crossed decisively - Correction possibly over.
- If Gold             falls to 900 - buy very strategically and for the long term.
- If you are bull and keep longs through 1350 and you are right - Congratulations.
Gold can't go up with US Dollar forever.
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I was bearish on the perception of Fed's interest rate hikes... But then the Eurodollar futures shows something else, which makes me question my bearish bias. That said, Dollar Index is looking a bit weak heading into this new week and Gold got a boost due to the Swiss. And yes, its funny how a small move (within the larger move) has made some people already start calling a bottom in Gold. 1300 - 1350 looks like a potential zone for this correction to end. My earlier estimates was a correction from 1180 to 1250, but it just shot up a bit higher.

After the chaos from this week, next week is FOMC. If gold does get to 1350, I bet the Fed will start to spank the Gold down again.

Waiting for 800 - 900 zone to hoard up some metal :D
+2 Reply
AndyM PRO
2 years ago
Down to 900 mid 2015 and this will mark the end of wave 2. Then up, and only up. Next target 2500+, fueled by weakening USD & collapsing S&P ))
+2 Reply
Anything is possible but a lower move down doesn't make sense. Gold is, and was, supported even through the downside last year. People forget gold has moved nearly 50% lower from its 2011 high. It also just finished its best week since 2011 and best start to the year since 2008. The SNB gave us some foreshadowing on how this all will play out. Sure, gold ain't sexy but in this environment makes since. If gold couldn't hit $1000 on the kind of shorts last year, I just don't see it now.
+4 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Move higher is justified because Gold is down 40% from 2011 high?
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CommoditiesTrader QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Why does it matter what I say? Gold Bears will be bears regardless. My analysis gets the job done, so that's that
+1 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Nobody is disagreeing with short term move higher. We're looking for the correct analysis/theme as to why Gold/Silver should be moving higher. Often times price does not reflect what is always correct or right. If USD is going higher because it's a safe haven, than gold is not a good alternative and will find itself in fast and furious move lower.
+1 Reply
CommoditiesTrader QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I agree with most of what you said. However, the USD has been a bit of a risk-on trade since the market first pulled back in October, when Bullard had to save it.

The USD pulled back significantly with the last two significant pullbacks in the S&P. I understand price doesn't always tell the whole story. It's one of the most manipulated markets there is, but there still remains demand. Retail demand is strong (although a bit stronger on the silver side), and there is a large shortage in rehypothecated gold, which is bought via central banks and large financial institutions.

Like I said before, I am long bullion, and I have no problem hedging through paper products. However, given the full context of the cluster&%^$ that is central bankins, I believe there is a bit of a floor.

Also, you have to also realize there is no opportunity cost of holding gold. Yields on treasuries near all-time lows - let alone signaling trouble ahead. You can own a bund or JGB and get paid nothing on the dollar, in some cases negative returns, or hold the "premier" currency. Gold please.

Also, you have to also realize, as much as I love a good day or swing trade, I look for longer-term potential.
+1 Reply
jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Hi CommoditiesTrader, would you qualify this as long term potential?
Global Energy ETF with Megaphone effect
+1 Reply
CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
I think that could be a possibility. The only problem is, I don't know how much the group would degrade at these prices. Brent is really talking it on the head, and I think WTI will go lower. Demand is the big key IMO. We're seeing large demand players like China slow down.

Furthermore, I think WTI is just consolidating. If the economical picture would get use in the US, I think it will head lower.

However, on a R/R standpoint, energy could offer value over the long run.
+1 Reply
jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
long but hedge on the downside..perhaps
+1 Reply
CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
Very well could pan out. Typically with energies I trade futures, so I am just not familiar on the ETFs price action. Does it pay a dividend?
+1 Reply
jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
I am more concern with capital gain... dividend is peanuts
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CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
Lol, no I understand. I was just curious. I was looking at the chart, and it doesn't have enough the price action history I like. But on the 4H, it looks like it could rebound to 21.5/22.

Given your chart, 24.60 looks like an area I would target. What's your cost basis.
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jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Have not really work up yet, though hammer is there, the low could be violated.. i adopt wait and see
chances are high that i will have 3 separate longs..soon

Oh yes, i am one of the loser who averages my entry those books are talking about :-)
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jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
In descending triangle on daily chart..
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YaKa PRO CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Did you see 1100 when it was at 1500?

It made sense to buy it then too and there were only few guys pointing to 1200.

What makes sense is subjective and even when there is a consensus on the logic, the price has its own logic that can easily fit a 6months excess.

After climbing 750% over 10years... if a correction of 40% has been possible.. an extension of that to 54% that would match 618 fibo is VERY REALISTIC.

But the pivot is clear. To be bullish long term, Gold has to break 1350.
+4 Reply
CommoditiesTrader YaKa
2 years ago
Like I've mentioned before I initiated a $1,035 call in the beginning of of 2013. What makes sense is holding gold in this central bank cluster%#^*. Sure gold could gold down but the "gold to 900 because it makes sense" argument is a little overdone
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YaKa PRO CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
We ll see.

I am a trader. I try not to be too attached to any idea.

We can map the price better than ideas.

Let's see what it does around 1350.
+3 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
So you are calling the bottom in gold. There's two types looking at Gold right now. One group is looking at this move in Gold as very temporary. Others have said that's it, we've seen the bottom, we can now resume a move to test all time highs.

For me this move is temporary, and for those that long Gold/Euro and Gold/Yen did very well. Gold/Dollar traders did half as well. We're not yet done with temporary move higher in Gold, because we are waiting out the details to ECB QE decision.
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YaKa PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I am both SHORT and LONG.
Question of time frame.
NOW: both the long and short coincide into a move up: let's be long until 1350.
+3 Reply
I had a short term price of upward to 1390
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YaKa PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Interesting. How do you get to 1390?
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YaKa PRO YaKa
2 years ago
if you can share the method that projects this?
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snapshot


I'm looking at the horizontal tops. We broke the previous support, lower low and now looking for a high no higher than previous high.
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
ok.
yes actually the area to consider is probably 1350/1450.
not going to be easy....
Again: seems being long here is a good idea...
+1 Reply
jangseohee QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
JR, IMHO 1300 has to clear first assuming price move in 45degree
Gold, the first triangle will be photocopied?
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snapshot


For GLD
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
thank you.
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snapshot


The argument is which will win as the safe haven currency. If Euro sees stability, the recent run in US Dollar will cause Gold price in dollars to go down.
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CommoditiesTrader QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Even as gold has decoupled from the dollar?
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Gold decoupled? This relationship between gold/dollar has held true since the Nixon Shock back in the early 1970s
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CommoditiesTrader QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Yes, recently it has. Dollar hits decade highs while gold has best start of year since 2008. There are so many correlations w 2014 and 2008. US will be in recession by summer 2016. Fed will intervene well before that to weaken the dollar.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Gold Bugs have lost every argument as to why Gold is going higher. First it was QE, "massive currency printing-bond buying", would cause rapid inflation. That never occurred, there was even the benefit of doubt with a time lag from QE1/2/3 where there should have been inflation, there was none. Matter of fact QE has done little to tame world wide deflation, as expected Global GDP numbers, and expected inflation, have been revised downward every year since 2008.

There was also the gold argument for a currency safe haven. Well that can't hold true, because gold and silver are both a currency and a commodity. Demand for physical gold has gone down considerably for the past 3 years. While supply for Gold has not slowed down and is not expected to slow down until 2016 according to the three largest miners of gold in the world. Now that oil has gone down considerably (lower energy = lower operating cost) that will push these miners to keep projects running even longer.
+1 Reply
CommoditiesTrader QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Lol as I said, I'm not a gold big so we can toss that out.
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afbitcoins QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Those central banks stand ready to print 'quadrillions' if deflation really starts to kick in. There is no limit
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snapshot

Gold vs Euro
+1 Reply
elp
2 years ago
Looking at a long term yearly chart, gold seems to make a high 30-45 years, then go sideways. The 2011 high might not be breached for years to come. So for the next 20-30 years gold could stay in a choppy range similar to left of the chart.
snapshot
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO elp
2 years ago
Very interesting Elpuerto.
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It's been 12-14 years bullish and every 18-22 years bearish.
+3 Reply
snapshot


Together vs Gold
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elp
2 years ago
Believe gold could hit resistance 1350-1390, targeting 940s Break above 1390 believe 1530 (former floor) could be tested as resistance and would be a gift short imho.
snapshot
+1 Reply
Do you have any charts for Gold/Euro or Gold/Yen ?
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elp QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Quandl is doing up grades tonight so I can't get a gold euro chart but was able to get data for gold yen. Gold yen looks like it's entering big resistance from yr 1980, not quite there and might not make it either? Also, looking at the usdjpy it too looks like it's at a possible resistance level.
snapshot
+4 Reply
That's amazing. So Yen - Gold/Yen, proved to mark both the Tops and bttoms in Gold
+2 Reply
elp QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
Yes, gold yen closely mirrors the GC, although GC topped out before gold yen.
+1 Reply
So it looks like we have to watch Gold/Yen and Dollar/Yen to get a better idea how much is left in this recent gold move.
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YaKa PRO elp
2 years ago
Excellent indeed.
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elp QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
The usdjpy seems to be at trendline resistance with the monthly rsi turning down after giving the highest reading from the data on this chart. If the jpy strengthens, gold priced in jpy could go into a bear market?
snapshot
+2 Reply
Good analysis. I missed that look from 1980. To get Gold/Euro on TRadingView, you have to type in manual (don't select from drop down) GC1!/E61!
+2 Reply
elp QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
TY, will try that next time!
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jangseohee elp
2 years ago
FXY, around the world in 2723 days
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snapshot


Simple versions, shows previous support/resistance.
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
In euro, i must say it looks rather impulsive.
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You mean like a throwback or headfake?
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snapshot


Gold / Yen breaking previous support/resistance much faster
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snapshot


Before Yen and Euro moved down fast and Gold followed. This time Euro and Yen moved up fast, but US Dollar got in the way.
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Stockman
2 years ago
So...100% of miners will be unprofitable? I don't think so...another perma-bear here, bull market will continue with FED QE4 , Euro QE etc...anyone can just slap a fib 50%, US dollar and gold detached, gold hitting highs in all other currencies. USD gold will follow to 1520's this year
-1 Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion PRO Stockman
2 years ago
No, miners cost per ounce range from 950 to 550 USD.
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YaKa PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
2 years ago
I thought I had read 1200 somewhere a while back?
if the cost of production is so low, why did XAU go so low.. does not make sense.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
bull flag? or downtrend continuation?
snapshot
+6 Reply
SS96 PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
...or how about going all the way to the bottom of the channel at ~500ish$/Oz?

too many bulls now in the gold complex. Fundamentally nothing has changed. Rate hikes are coming.
+2 Reply
LudmilaHanania SS96
2 years ago
Do you really believe rate hikes are coming? If the Fed does 1 rate hike it will be the first and last , a big mistake that will backfire , nothing has changed since the start of QE in the real economy.
-1 Reply
SS96 PRO LudmilaHanania
2 years ago
"big mistake that will backfire" - wont be their last!
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jangseohee
2 years ago
In my Monthly channel is valid plus the cyclical look of it, i could see gold hitting lower channel of around 500 in 2031! IMHO
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jangseohee
2 years ago
3 months ago, i've only consider 45degree movement, it's my mistake i will take into account 60 & 30 degree movement.
The big red resistance line could be the party spoiler.. around 93.5-94, IMHO

Fed playing with Symmetry, Amen
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jangseohee
2 years ago
NYA vs Gold-Don
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afbitcoins
2 years ago
snapshot
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afbitcoins afbitcoins
2 years ago
Sorry don't know how to embed my image into a chart. To me it looks like gold vs US$ has already broken out of bear channel. Price is in log scale
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jangseohee afbitcoins
2 years ago
1. the moment you click "reply", a box appear
2. you see that "lighthing" little box on right top
3. insert the url of your chart (if it has been posted)
4. if not been posted, click on the camera and a temporary URL will appear, copy it and insert here :-)
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afbitcoins afbitcoins
2 years ago
Thanks very much, handy to know :)
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jangseohee afbitcoins
2 years ago
welcome.. post it now :-)
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afbitcoins afbitcoins
2 years ago
snapshot
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