Global economic data faces disruption

Oct 13

The trading week from October 11 to 17 is expected to be highly volatile as the U.S. government shutdown could delay the release of key economic data such as CPI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to assess inflation trends ahead of its upcoming policy meeting. Throughout the week, investors will focus on major events including the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings, the NATO Defense Summit, and the G20 press conference.

Central banks like the Fed, ECB, and RBA will continue to shape market sentiment through speeches and meeting minutes, while China, OPEC, and the Eurozone will release crucial data on trade, inflation, and energy—potentially triggering short-term volatility across global markets.

Three key risks will dominate this week: escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, central bank communications that could shift interest rate expectations, and the potential resurgence of trade wars dampening global risk appetite. In this environment, safe-haven assets such as gold, the U.S. dollar, and Treasury bonds are likely to attract capital inflows, while equities and commodities may face downward pressure.

Technical Outlook Analysis XAUUSD
Trend Overview
• After a short-term correction to around $3,950/oz, gold prices rebounded and closed above $4,000 – confirming the recovery momentum in the main uptrend.
• The main trend remains strong, supported by:
o The MA20 is clearly sloping up.
o RSI remains above 60, not yet giving an overbought signal.
o The uptrend channel is still maintained, the daily candle closed near the top – showing overwhelming buying power.

Key Technical Zones
• Nearest Resistance: $4,059 – this is the short-term top that needs to be overcome to extend the upside.
• Next Resistance:
o Fibonacci level 0.382 at $4,232,
o Level 0.5 at $4,320,
o And the 0.618 extension at $4,408 – potential targets if gold maintains the current momentum.
• Short-term Support:
o $4,000 (strong psychological zone – now turned from resistance to support).
o Deeper support at $3,896 – $3,871, coinciding with the confluence of MA20 + previous correction bottom.

Summary
• Gold is basically in an uptrend (Wave 3) with strong momentum and no RSI divergence signal yet.
• As long as the price holds above $3,950, the uptrend remains dominant.
• If there is a decisive breakout above $4,059, the next target will be the $4,230 – $4,320 zone in the short term.

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4076 - 4074⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4080

→Take Profit 1 4068
↨
→Take Profit 2 4062

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4000 - 4002⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3996

→Take Profit 1 4008
↨
→Take Profit 2 4014

Oct 13

Trade active

Plan SELL HIT TP1 +100pips. Heading to TP2 😵😵😵

Oct 13

Trade closed: target reached

Plan SELL Hit Full TP2 + 140pips🤕🤕🤕. Congratulations everyone

Oct 14

Note

🔴Spot gold price rose to 4140 USD/ounce, up 0.70% on the day.

Oct 14

Note

Oct 15

Note

Gold prices hit a record high of $4,179.47 per ounce on Wednesday. Although prices briefly fell below the $4,100 mark during the session, strong dip-buying activity quickly helped gold regain momentum, closing up 0.77% at $4,142.01 per ounce.

Oct 17

Note

The world's largest gold ETF -- SPDR Gold Trust increased by 12.02 tonnes compared to the previous day, the largest increase in 1 month, current holdings are 1034.62 tonnes.