GOLD - The edge of 2nd and 3rd wave

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
2435 26 57
Day 42 in my cycle count. Very long cycle. After yesterday's monster decline we've arrived to the 2nd level - the end of 2nd wave- where the blue trendline , the April daily lows and the 100 EMA (daily EMA ) is.
We broke through the blue trendline , and attacking now the daily candle's lows of April at 1224$.
I suggest patience here. All who covered some of the short positions should hold the rest of the short positions we might get one more drawdown this week to the to the 100 EMA (1219$) , maybe today , maybe Friday at the GDP.

The 3rd wave will start when we break significantly below the 100 EMA . The end of the 3rd wave is the16.02. DCL .
I think the daily cycle low will be at the 100 EMA or at the 16.02. DCL - this week - and we will have some bounce from there(5-6 days) before we start to attack the 200 EMA and the 16.02. DCL. When we break through that level - most probably 2nd week of June - the panic selling will start. I would like to be in full short positions again there.

Summary: Again I suggest patience. If you are short you can hold it a little more, we might come down this week to 1207 ( 3rd level - end of 3rd wave) . I tried to scalp on my account yesterday after market close with a small long position but the bounce was only 4$ . Gold             is very weak I don't think it's a good idea go long here because there is still a lot of room to the downside and who knows how strong is the 3rd and 4th level... Also a bit late for starting shorts now as we will print the DCL in 2-3 days. When we have the bounce (green line) there is a possibility to go short again and make some nice gains during the panic selling stage

Because of yesterday's decline I moved the 200 EMA to the 4th level (end of 4th wave)
Comment: We broke the april candle's daily lows. 100 EMA is next. (purple)
Comment: We might have printed the daily cycle low today on day 42.
Price has bounced from the 100 EMA. Now we should have a few days bounce as the dollar loosing its strength for a few days . Approximately 4-5 days of weak bounce. Maybe the testback of the 50 EMA at 1240-45$. It's almost impossible to tell how far it can go but it should be a weak bounce.
The dollar will be leading gold now.
Just curious about the volume of DUST and JDST. There seems to be exponentially more interest in these funds in the last month than at any other time in the past few years. What impact could this have on the price of these leveraged funds or are my charts just wrong???
Thanks for sharing your analysis, very good explanation, please keep update us, I'm following !
So will DUST and JDST drop significantly while gold bounces up to $1240-45 ??
Not significantly . But there will be some kind of drop. I think that bulls are waiting for a big bounce in gold , a higher high but after 2 days of weak rally they will realize that something is wrong and try to find the exit sign.
I didn't want to quit today because I thought that the miner bounce will be weaker. Now I say would have been better to quit the miners also...
But the panic selling stage will correct this mistake. We will make a big money by the end of June.
+1 Reply
XTAL.ball chartwatchers
I don't know what to think. JDST dropped 20% after gold rose by $6 today. If gold goes to $1240 should JDST drop significantly? Something like 50% ??
XTAL.ball XTAL.ball
I can't just hold JDST if I know it's going to drop that much...
isaac312 XTAL.ball
then dont. close them and eat with options big. It can recover man
great job Arpi ... i will wait to buy but what the recommended point to buy ?
+2 Reply
sha2labaz sha2labaz
point or area ?
+1 Reply
To go heavily with buy only in July.
If you want to buy the bounce with small position I would say it risky. It can have a big drawdown anytime.
Why dont you sell the bounce from 1240$ if there will be next week.
The panic selling will be beautiful even with a small short position.
+2 Reply
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