chartwatchers

GOLD - The edge of 2nd and 3rd wave

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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Day 42 in my cycle count. Very long cycle. After yesterday's monster decline we've arrived to the 2nd level - the end of 2nd wave- where the blue trendline, the April daily lows and the 100 EMA (daily EMA ) is.
We broke through the blue trendline, and attacking now the daily candle's lows of April at 1224$.
I suggest patience here. All who covered some of the short positions should hold the rest of the short positions we might get one more drawdown this week to the to the 100 EMA (1219$) , maybe today , maybe Friday at the GDP.

The 3rd wave will start when we break significantly below the 100 EMA . The end of the 3rd wave is the16.02. DCL .
I think the daily cycle low will be at the 100 EMA or at the 16.02. DCL - this week - and we will have some bounce from there(5-6 days) before we start to attack the 200 EMA and the 16.02. DCL. When we break through that level - most probably 2nd week of June - the panic selling will start. I would like to be in full short positions again there.

Summary: Again I suggest patience. If you are short you can hold it a little more, we might come down this week to 1207 ( 3rd level - end of 3rd wave) . I tried to scalp on my account yesterday after market close with a small long position but the bounce was only 4$ . Gold is very weak I don't think it's a good idea go long here because there is still a lot of room to the downside and who knows how strong is the 3rd and 4th level... Also a bit late for starting shorts now as we will print the DCL in 2-3 days. When we have the bounce (green line) there is a possibility to go short again and make some nice gains during the panic selling stage

Because of yesterday's decline I moved the 200 EMA to the 4th level (end of 4th wave)
Comment: We broke the april candle's daily lows. 100 EMA is next. (purple)
Comment:
Comment: We might have printed the daily cycle low today on day 42.
Price has bounced from the 100 EMA. Now we should have a few days bounce as the dollar loosing its strength for a few days . Approximately 4-5 days of weak bounce. Maybe the testback of the 50 EMA at 1240-45$. It's almost impossible to tell how far it can go but it should be a weak bounce.
The dollar will be leading gold now.

Comments

Thanks Arpi for your job!
F*ck the banks and brokers:)
+5 Reply
Great analysis, I can see this clearly now. Th egg has cracked. Thanx
+4 Reply
Your analysis and charting of this gold decline has been simply stunning. I have not ever seen such work. It has been quite a pleasure to follow you and your timely updates. Thanks for the education!
+4 Reply
RogerS nmvipe711
Completely agree. Perfect timing and accurate analysis. Thanks Arpi !
+3 Reply
Awesome job. Like textbook instruction.
+3 Reply
great job Arpi ... i will wait to buy but what the recommended point to buy ?
+2 Reply
MahmoudAbdulsalam1985 MahmoudAbdulsalam1985
point or area ?
+1 Reply
chartwatchers MahmoudAbdulsalam1985
To go heavily with buy only in July.
If you want to buy the bounce with small position I would say it risky. It can have a big drawdown anytime.
Why dont you sell the bounce from 1240$ if there will be next week.
The panic selling will be beautiful even with a small short position.
+2 Reply
ok ... i will wait this price next week to sell but with small size as u recommended

thanks man for your support
Reply
but 1 question please ... why you said buy in july ? just to know
thanks man
Reply
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