JudyCarrot

next bullish run for gold

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
hello gold traders. now I have two possible scenarios for the next bullish run of gold .

scenario 1: we have made the bottomed here around 1760 zone since here is gann fan 8/1 breakout line of the previous top in year 2011. you could check my post below to see it.

scenario 2: we will test the price on this chart around 1670-1700 zone, or even lower in case of further crash of the stock market to 1560-90 zone as I mentioned before in the previous wave count of gold last year. personally I prefer the second scenario.


target for this bullish run is 1900-1920 zone first since we still have a volume gap around that price, after that we may continue the drop because the expectation of real rate has went up significantly and no confirmation for reversal until now. if we could hold above 1970 zone on weekly chart, then I assume we may see the next wave 5 up of gold to 2250 zone in year 2022.
Comment: wave count with fibonacci extension figures
Comment: imo late march to early April would be the best timing to consider buying calls.
Comment:
yesterday gold reached our first buy zone with 89 MA support on weekly chart, so far no confirmation for bottom. daily close above 377 MA (around 1723 now) might lead the road to 1767-82 zone next.
Comment: March 24th long gold to mid/late May, then retrace down or make a new low in June/early July. then from late July or early august I expect bullish run to late September๐Ÿ˜Š
Comment: now we see a bearish divergence on us 10 year. from march 5th, OI increased significantly on comex gold. also I mentioned in gold chat that march 8th was the 210 degree dynamic date which is calculated from the top on august 7th. i expect to see a bullish run to fill the 1726 gap at least for this week, then we will see a drop on Friday or early next week again.
Comment: yesterday gold made a breakout of MA 21 on daily chart, also break the purple gann fan 3/1 line as you could see. now both of them are acting as support now. however it made a gap at 1727 yesterday, so eventually we will come back to 1727 again but don't know when and how.
Comment: another possibility for new low
Comment: as expected, gold is waiting for march 23/24 to choose the direction, bearish tp is around 1680-1690 area if 4 hour candle failed to hold 1725-27 zone, bullish tp is 1772-82 zone as the next target.
Comment: GC 1688 gap finally filled, we are at support zone for 1680-90 with 1670 sl, below 1670 we will for 1580-1620 zone.
Comment: updated scenarios with current PA.
scenario 1: we are still in big wave 4, now up to 183x zone then C leg down again in summer time.
scenario 2: we double bottomed at 1670, then target will be 1900 next at least even this would be abc correction up.
Comment: now we reached gann fan resistance at 1784 level, time to close some longs from 1680-90 zone. ideally we shall still reach 183x before any significant retrace.
Comment:
Comment: soon I will close more calls above 1700, today or tomorrow we might reach 1810-1820 zone, then it's very likely to retrace for later this week.
Comment: time to close gold longs
Comment: if dxy could hold 87.5-88.5 zone (88.5 is the monthly support on MAs and 87.5 is strong PA support) in summer time then we might see wave 5 up of dxy to hit the trendline again to 108 zone in year 2024. if so, gold will follow the structure in 2011 pattern and reach 1900-1970 area then drop hard.
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Comment:
Comment: cot report shows that we might have finished the retrace, yesterday 1hr chart showed strong bullish signal and now 2hr is bullish too. we still need to see new high to confirm the wave 5 scenario with tp to 1857/1875. however 1835/40 pressure is high on order flow for now, another drop today is also possible, as long as above 1815 bulls could continue the game.
Comment:
Trade closed: target reached: so far chart works perfect, target 1900-1920 zone reached. gann 8/1 line did hold for daily close, let's see weekly close to decide the next move.
Comment:
Comment: perfect move as expected after the 1900-1920 tp in this 9th weekly candle(time balance here), here at gann fan support again. however we still have a gap around 1787, won't be surprised if we break here later this month
Comment: levels FYI, technically we shall hold 1760-80 zone, but who knows lol waiting for PA to open scalp longs.
Trade closed: target reached: first short target 1760-87 reached, daily close need above 1770 to open long
Comment: us10year gap 1.166 pending to be filled, gold next timing July 5th
Comment: gold doesn't look like bottomed on daily tf, for 1hr/4hr tf it starts to look like somehow bullish, 80-85 first resistance then 1820 next strong resistance, possible another retrace up then drop again.

btw I never make calls in pm, sometimes I describe my view with mid term expectation and I always ask ppl to decide themselves, but that doesn't equal to a financial advice. I am really disappointed with some ppl's terrible behavior to blame me for their losses which is definitely none of my business. it's your own business to click buy or sell and when to close. in order to avoid this kind of issue I WON'T ANSWER ANY PM AGAIN. CFD trading involves a high risk of loss and you should know that before you enter this market. thanks for your understanding and I hope everyone will make profits.