Today we have the swing in place. Also the descending channel's trendline is broken. If this holds we could have a few day of bounce in gold. We broke below 03.28.2016 DCL but there was no follow through. Also volume is siging that we ran out of sellers. I would like to see a big volume with green candle today. That could support the pop idea. Also the RSI is leaving the overbought territory which usually a sign of the DCL. The bounce can be a more powerful one up to the 50 EMA (1240$) and a steep drop after that into the panic selling stage (green scenario) In this case the pop should be finished this week, or early next week Or it could be a longer sideways consolidation (red scenario) till the middle of June where the 10 DEMA would catch up the price and the breakdown comes in the middle of June only.
I set this idea as a long trade though I don't suggest to trade this. There might be a 30$ up to 1140$ but most probably price will pop only 10-15$. The final scenario depends on the EUrUsd move, Friday's employment report and depends on banks do they want to play out bulls one more time before the final drawdown. I think last week bulls were destroyed badly, there should be a very weak employment report on Friday to have a strong bounce up to 1140-1150$. I suggest to use this pop for positioning in a short trade in the following 1 month's panic decline. Those who went long at 1200-1210$ could hold the position and decide in the following days when to take profit and enter to a short trade. I will post when I think the bounce is finished.
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Swing low from close. On the 26.05 there was a false swing... That was erased on the same day.
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Trendline is broken
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EurUsd is the key now. This 2nd breakout of the wedge seems to be working. That is also supporting the gold pop.
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Just watch how perfectly the EMA is working... That's the reason I use the EMA. MACD crossed down and recrossed up. So far so good...
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I think we had a perfect day today. 100 EMA worked as a resistance and we turned down, but I think 10 EMA or the 50 EMA will hold the price and the rally will continue tomorrow
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OfirAtias
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thank you very much:)
whawk
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Thank you this setup last week. Riding the pop up and ready to jump into JDST longs when the time comes.
kizly
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Risked with JNUG on friday, sold 50% with 7%. Small position, risk was too big.
Thnks
johnmad
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MariapiaScopesiCalo
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You are very expressive not only your really good but also I love your writing, you should be a writer! god bless you!!
johnmad
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Thank you , but not good in writing , i only love trading .
MariapiaScopesiCalo
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Oh John sorry!, message was not for you but for Arpi..
alanprotrader
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great analisys. thanks
BjornPfaff
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Beautifull Arpi , may god bless you for all your effort