chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Day 4 of free falling

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
4438 33 49
2 months ago
Posting the 2 days earlier private idea. The newest gold             updates you can find on my twitter account as a private idea link.
Thursday & Friday we closed below the 200 SMA on the daily chart . It doesn't mean we are in a bear market... It's just gold's second ICL , a really serious decline. We've seen the same thing in oil             a few weeks ago. It broke below the 200 SMA and recovered fast.

The bad news:
Beside the 200 SMA I've set the 240 SMA (green). At the bear market IC             highs ( highlighted by blue) price was tagging the 240 SMA . We cannot rule out the tag of 240 SMA . If the world thinks that NFP was good enough and China is not buying tomorrow we might tag 1228 (240 SMA )
Notice that Friday we stopped at the pre-brexit lows. If the rumours are true that a few big players needed to get out of short positions ( opened ahead of Brexit ) before DB             crisis, US elections, Italian bank crisis this is the point where they could exit at break even...

The good news:
RSI - and a few other indicators not shown - are at extreme ICL levels. We dropped so fast so much that we are at the bear market low levels in RSI ; TSI             and SlowStochastic.
The question : was it enough for the banks? The relentless selling and the big hurry might show they knew the data is weak .
My thoughts that they will hit one more time gold             on Monday. If too many traders are liquidated on Monday morning in China we will tag the 240 SMA at 1228 and will recover only Tuesday/Wednesday.
China gold             market will open 100$ lower where they went for a Holiday.
This will be an interesting open in the next hours.

2 months ago
Comment: Here is a guy - TPparadigma - he was buying at 1242-43.
His posts worth reading...
GOLD / 1258! / Technical Chinesse.
2 months ago
Comment: A possible Head & SHoulders pattern is forming
on hourly gold.
snapshot
2 months ago
Comment: Inverse H&S....
2 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
2 months ago
Comment: It's getting interesting, I see 2 possibilities:
1. Gold is predicting a fall in the dollar ( FED might have to step in soon against the dollar???)
2. Or we will start to rally with the dollar just before Brexit.
TPparadigma PRO
2 months ago
Will be funny, Chartwatcher fighted so bad.. so bad for the bull. Now when he says - maybe a little more hit down... gold skyrockets! hahaha
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chartwatchers PRO TPparadigma
2 months ago
I just want to prepare you if we go to 1230 don't jump off this train LOL.
+1 Reply
TPparadigma PRO chartwatchers
2 months ago
I know man, chill! :D
Reply
kidbroge
2 months ago
I mentioned how weak Gold was early on Friday after the pop and fizzle, then later in the day it had a big rally. My indicator has a bullish ab=cd pattern showing in the hourly. China is back from a week long holiday. Got in, sl under 1240. Over 1265 and I think it keeps going. Thank you chartwatcher for the obserrvations.
+1 Reply
f1l1per. PRO
2 months ago
Many signs on Gold
Reply
watsonzou26
2 months ago
It's so true that Chinese DAMAs love to buy gold. I loaded up some NUGT last Friday. I would be adding if it goes down further. 1240 is a big support for the gold (Fib 0.328). As we saw, when the price touched there, bounced up quickly.
+1 Reply
albertwt watsonzou26
2 months ago
It seems that the price will be supported since the Chinese people will buy some more gold this week and also Indian people for Diwali.
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watsonzou26 albertwt
2 months ago
We need see price stand up at $1270 to confirm, otherwise we could see one more time down.
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lio
2 months ago
He's going to short again... So how :(
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earthkamol
2 months ago
Is gold still heading up? Which price should i get in? Sry for stupid question, i'm new.
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chartwatchers PRO earthkamol
2 months ago
Between 1230-1245 any price is good.
You will not be able to catch the exact bottom.
Pick a position around that price
Reply
earthkamol chartwatchers
2 months ago
Thank you very much for reply ^^
Reply
epalazzo
2 months ago
Silver has made a swing low today.
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Viking83 PRO
2 months ago
An inverse one that is - important difference :D
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Viking83 PRO Viking83
2 months ago
You almost scared me
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hittkts
2 months ago
so are you bearish the dollar still?
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chartwatchers PRO hittkts
2 months ago
As far as we are in the triangle...
snapshot
+1 Reply
hittkts chartwatchers
2 months ago
thx. yeah knocking on the door again. think we test the 9750 stops myself.
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watsonzou26 chartwatchers
2 months ago
great chart, Arpi.
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VirtualFax
2 months ago
IH&S would have been nice as it would provide a great buying opportunity around $1,250 support before shooting up.

Since Fri JNUG seem to be thinking about revisiting the support area around $9.60 so formation of the right shoulder in Gold could make that happen
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Hambone
2 months ago
Thanks for your analysis, Any concern with DXY breaking out of the 2016 wedge to the upside?
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Viking83 PRO
2 months ago
I think it might be the top in dollar it is anticipating, we are getting close to an important point!
USD top @ 97.69?
+1 Reply
investment6300
2 months ago
Interesting that XAUGBP went up while in USD it fell! So Gold must begetting hot as the dollar also strengthens
Reply
camontes731
2 months ago
Had a trader by the name of Christopher terry suggest a possible sell at 1280 with a sl at 1300 and a tp of 1240. Will post link to video
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camontes731
2 months ago
https://www.facebook.com/marketwiz000/posts/1833391450209746
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koastech
2 months ago
I think that the fall in the dollar is the most likely scenario.
Please keep posting your great analyses and don't pay attention to the haters .Been there done that..when you are right 99% of the time that is expected but when you are not immediately right the other 1% of the time then you are a failure that cost money to someone....Wronnnggg!! That is not true....if I loose money it is because of of my mistakes not your opinions period
Thanks for sharing your knowledge!!
Reply
bhowe
2 months ago
How do you reconcile the fact that DXY has now made a higher high than it did previously in July? Should we not expect a lower low in Gold and what does that do to the Bull market?
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ezytradesignals
2 months ago
Been watching your charts and analysis - gained profits at first then started losing money. Then what I did is basically did the exact opposite of your analysis and made so much more money. Thank you, keep it up - will be doing the exact opposite from hereon.. lol
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Perseus ezytradesignals
2 months ago
No offense, but 100% blindly following someone else is not a smart thing to do. That just speaks to your level of intelligence.
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ezytradesignals Perseus
2 months ago
No offense, I have been following Arpi blindly with his scare mongering that Bulls will have a lightspeed move, and until recently, been doing my own analysis and just went against his ideas. - Made money and recoup the losses as well.
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ezytradesignals
2 months ago
So what if you called the bottom of oil - you probably have bottomed your account from Gold?
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investment6300
2 months ago
Hi, if you did not know China currency became part of SDR at IMF new currency representation 30 October and that why 2 October gave dollar rally possibly . A new sift in currency wars
video tells a little more or google https://youtu.be/P9J_V5GGU4Y. New currency surprise to hit world possibly in Jan 2017
Reply
investment6300
2 months ago
Apri, what would your explanation be for the huge spike in the gold XAUGBP be and then also not seen in the XAUUSD.(11 th)yesterday
Reply
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