Gold's general commentary: #2 important things ahead of yesterday's U.S. session opening. #1st: even though the Price-action broken the Higher High’s trendline from #1,900’s earlier, it failed to test and break the #1,898.80 - #1,900.80 Support zone (and close the market below / full candle closing), so Technically Price-action is still below Higher High’s Upper zone, just non-linear resemblance. As discussed, as long as the #1,900.80 Support zone holds, Gold is Neutral / Bullish regarding the Short-term. #2nd, newly former Hourly 4 chart’s Ascending Channel is still untouched, so Technically I don't have confirmation of a possible full scale reversal (which will occur if Bond Yields extend the recovery) and the Selling sequence in extension is out of the equation.
Technical analysis: As stated on my remarks, I got another Selling signal, so patience if during this flat session no Selling action appears ahead of the Fed (Natural Price-action ahead of High impact announcements such as Fed rate and the conference in addition). DX is still consolidating and is near Friday’s Low’s, as it is counterbalanced by the pullback on Bond Yields. Gold remains relatively High under the circumstances. Price-action continues to consolidate on the Hourly 1 chart’s basis after almost #27 point uptrend on Intra-day throughout yesterday session. However, Gold didn’t broke the last barrier of #1,900.80 on Spot prices, confirming the first downside wave towards the multi-Month Weekly Support zone (former Quadruple Top rejection point). Hourly charts turned Bearish once again but based on the Daily chart’s Descending Channel since break of Rising Wedge (which is now turned in consolidation area called Neutral Rectangle), it is safer to Buy after every red Weekly candle (those were on November #4, December #9 and January #13 fractal). The DX is on critical crossroads and should stay above #101.400, but that is likely to have little or no effect on Gold in the coming sessions, Gold was Technically equipped for pausing an uptrend as it is too early to speculate until when. Technically, both on Oscillators and Candlesticks, Gold should lose value with every Hourly candle minimum to #1,900.80 benchmark once again. However, Trading against Fundamentals (recession fears already digested by the markets so you can expect normal market conditions in the next #2-session horizon, Fed aftermath).
My position: I have engaged my Selling order with #1,928.80 as my entry point, optimal Target remains #1,900.80 psychological benchmark. I expect Fed to move the rate #0.25% and conference later to arise Gold's Sellers and push the Price-action towards #1,900.80 benchmark.
@farmtrader15, hard to sell short with these chart set ups...
Ela_CBE
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Hello Friend! How are you? Happy to see your analysis again. Just a question... If Fed raises interest 0.25% only, it's good for Gold which will fly and negative for DXY and 0.5% increase means, DXY will strengthen and Gold will fall. Am I right?